Talking Points
Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY has moved steadily higher over the past few days
- Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while over 101.05
- A daily close over 102.25 is needed to confirm the start of a more serious advance
- A minor cycle turn window is seen today
- Weakness below 101.05 would re-focus lower
USD/JPY Strategy: Like buying USD/JPY on a move through 102.25.
Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
USD/JPY | *101.05 | 101.35 | 101.60 | 101.75 | *102.25 |
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- NZD/USD dropped to its lowest level in over a month before rebounding off the 61.8% retracement of the June/July advance
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Bird while below .8645
- A close under .8555 is needed to set up the next leg lower
- A minor cycle turn window is eyed tomorrow
- Strength back through .8645 would turn us positive on the Kiwi
NZD/USD Strategy: Like the long side while under .8645
Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
NZD/USD | .8525 | *.8555 | .8590 | .8615 | *.8645 |
Focus Chart of the Day:
EUR/USD is at a near-term crossroads with respect to timing. A convergence of cyclical relationships this week suggests the exchange rate is susceptible to a counter-trend move in the sessions ahead. Perhaps the most interesting relationship here that could influence is the 261.8% time extension of the 2011/2012 range (shown above). From a price perspective the rate has been so far been unable to gain much traction below 1.3460 and until we see a close below this level we are open to at least the possibility of a fairly aggressive recovery – especially with month-end on the horizon. Strength back through 1.3520 would signal at least an intermediate-term low is probably in place.
--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com