GROWTHACES.COM Forex Trading Strategies
Taken Positions
EUR/USD: short at 1.1080, target 1.0750, stop-loss 1.1180, risk factor *
USD/JPY: long at 123.70, target 125.80, stop-loss 122.90, risk factor *
USD/CHF: long at 0.9560, target 0.9750, stop-loss 0.9490, risk factor *
EUR/GBP: short at 0.7145, target 0.6905, stop-loss 0.7190, risk factor **
Pending Orders
USD/CAD: buy at 1.2900, target 1.3095, stop-loss 1.2820, risk factor *
AUD/USD: sell at 0.7390, target 0.7205, stop-loss 0.7465, risk factor *
USD/NZD: sell at 0.6660, target 0.6405, stop-loss 0.6740, risk factor *
EUR/CHF: buy at 1.0460, target 1.0700, stop-loss 1.0365, risk factor *
EUR/USD: Get Short For 1.0750
(short at 1.1080)
- German Ifo's business climate index, based on a monthly survey of some 7k firms, rose to 108.0 from a revised 107.5 in June, beating the market consensus for a reading of 107.2. Current conditions has bounced to 113.9 from 113.1, and vs. expectations of 113.0. The expectations index has bounced to 102.4 from 102.0, and vs. expectations of 101.8.
- European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said anti-deflation asset purchase programme was bearing fruit, but it would be premature to begin discussing its end. He added the Eurozone countries no longer question whether to restructure Greece's debt, but rather what would be the best way to do it.
- US Commerce Department said on Friday new single-family home sales declined 6.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 482k units, the lowest level since last November. May's sales pace was revised down to 517k units from the previously reported 546k units. The market expected new home sales to be unchanged last month. However, sales were up 18.1% compared to June of last year. Despite two straight months of declines in new home sales, the overall housing market recovery remains intact. Another data showed that existing home sales jumped to a more than eight-year high in June. Data last week showed building permits near an eight-year peak in June and housing starts increasing solidly. The stock of new houses for sale increased 3.4% to 215k last month, the highest since May 2010. Supply remains less than half of what it was at the height of the housing boom.
- The market is eyeing US durable goods orders data today (12:30 GMT). A good release would further reduce the uncertainty surrounding economic data in the run-up to the start of the Fed’s hiking cycle.
- We went short at 1.1080 after today’s good Ifo release, in line with our trading strategy. We expect the EUR/USD to drop to at least 1.0810 (above recent low posted on July 20). However, the EUR/USD is likely to break below that level in case of hawkish Fed statement (Wednesday) and stronger US Q2 GDP data (Thursday) that will be published this week.
Significant technical analysis' levels:
Resistance: 1.1124 (50% fibo 1.1440-1.0808), 1.1197 (high Jul 13), 1.1199 (61.8% fibo 1.440-1.0808)
Support: 1.0969 (session low Jul 27), 1.0922 (session low Jul 23), 1.0869 (low Jul 22)
USD/JPY: Get Long For 125.80
(long at 123.70)
- Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso said he expected Japan's inflation to accelerate from around autumn this year as effects of last year's oil slump dissipate. He added that the central bank has no plan to change the BoJ's assumption on oil price moves just with short-term market fluctuations. He also noted that he expects Japan's consumption to remain firm as real wages are expected to rise.
- Some market participants expects BOJ to increase its QQE programme in October, but this is not our baseline scenario.
- The USD/JPY is lower today, but in our opinion it is a good opportunity to get long on this pair. We keep our long position taken at 123.70 with the target at 125.80. There is an important resistance level at 124.57 -76.4% retrace of the 125.86-120.41 June/July fall.
Significant technical analysis' levels:
Resistance: 124.19 (high Jul 23), 124.48 (high Jul 21), 124.57 (76.4% fibo 125.86-120.41)
Support: 123.26 (low Jul 15), 122.92 (low Jul 14), 122.05 (low Jul 13)
Source: Growth Aces Forex Trading Strategies