EUR/JPY: Maintains Positive Near-Term Tone

EUR/USD

The Euro ticked higher and probed above 1.27 barrier on extended consolidative phase off 1.2612, 23 Oct low. Last Friday positive close gives positive signal, however, failure to close above daily 20SMA, keeps the downside at risk. Extension above 1.27 barrier, so far tested 38.2% of 1.2884/1.2612 descend at 1.2716, with extension and close above 1.2750 zone, 50% retracement / daily Tenkan-sen line and broken bull-trendline off 1.2499 low, required to confirm recovery and higher base formation at 1.26 zone. However, weak daily and 4-hour studies, see limited upside action for now, with upside rejection to risk lower top formation and possible return to strong 1.26 support area, below which, retest of key near-term support at 1.2499, would be expected.

Res: 1.2716; 1.2750; 1.2790; 1.2839
Sup: 1.2675; 1.2658; 1.2633; 1.2612



EUR/JPY

The pair maintains positive near-term tone and consolidates around 137 handle, after around 20-pips gap-higher opening, which was limited by daily Kijun-sen line, on so far unsuccessful attempt for sustained break above 137 handle. On the other side, daily studies are still weak, with last Friday’s Doji signaling indecision at pivotal 137 barrier. Clear break here and rally through 137.66, 50% retracement of 141.20/134.12 descend / daily 100SMA is required to confirm break and open lower platform at 137.90 zone. Otherwise, expect prolonged consolidative phase, with increased downside risk, in case of failure and close below 137 level. Higher base at 136.50 zone, also near Fibonacci 38.2% of 135.19/137.24 ascend, offers solid support and break here would weaken near-term structure.

Res: 137.24; 137.66; 137.92; 138.50
Sup: 136.93; 136.77; 136.50; 136.20



GBP/USD

Cable bounced off important 1.60 support zone, where recent pullback was contained by daily Tenkan-sen line at Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.5873/1.6182 ascend. Fresh strength, which signals reversal on last Friday’s positive close, attempts above daily 20 SMA at 1.6093 and through pivotal 1.6100/28 resistance zone, psychological barrier / double-Fibonacci resistance of 38.2% of 1.6522/1.5873 and 61.8% of 1.6182/1.5992 / lower top of 22 Oct. Break and close above here to confirm bulls which are developing on 4-hour chart and open way towards breakpoints at 1.6182/1.6225, 21/09 Oct peaks. Failure to clear 1.61 barrier would signal extended consolidation, while loss of 1.60 handle will be bearish.

Res: 1.6108; 1.6120; 1.6150; 1.6182
Sup: 1.6070; 1.6037; 1.6016; 1.5992



USD/JPY

The pair remains supported in the near-term and trades in consolidative phase under fresh high at 108.34, where acceleration of the upleg from 106.23 was so far capped. Bulls developing on daily chart require sustained break above 108 barrier, which is now paused by Friday’s close in red. Initial supports at 107.73/63, daily 20SMA / daily Kijun-sen line, should be ideally keeping the downside protected for eventual push towards 110 breakpoint zone. However, caution is required while the price stays around 108 handle, as easing below initial supports and probe below 107.40/30, previous high / 50% retracement of 106.23/108.34 upleg, would weaken near-term structure and sideline bulls.

Res: 108.34; 108.73; 109.00; 109.22
Sup: 107.76; 107.63; 107.38; 107.29



AUD/USD

Near-term picture structure turned positive, as the pair attempted again above 0.88 barrier, with 0.8820 zone so far capping. However, overall near-term price action continues to move in a range trading. Improved near-term studies require trigger for attack at the upper boundary of the range and establish fresh direction on a break higher. On the other side, overall negative structure, favors resumption of larger downtrend from 0.9400 lower top, on completion of short-term consolidative phase for stronger correction of larger 0.9400/0.8641 descend.

Res: 0.8820; 0.8831; 0.8858; 0.8900
Sup: 0.8782; 0.8766; 0.8747; 0.8717



AUD/NZD

The pair hold positive near-term tone, regained on acceleration higher, which probed above psychological 1.1200 barrier. Consolidative action is under way and was signaled by last Friday’s Doji, with prevailing positive tone on near-term studies, keeping near-term focus at key highs at 1.1279/93. Break here is required to resume larger uptrend. Consolidative/corrective actions under 1.1223 high, should be ideally contained at 1.1130/00 zone, Fibonacci 38.2% / 50% retracement of 1.0983/1.1223 upleg, to keep near-term bulls intact.

Res: 1.1200; 1.1223; 1.1243; 1.1279
Sup: 1.1156; 1.1130; 1.1100; 1.1073



XAU/USD

Spot Gold is under pressure in the near-term, as the price extended reversal from fresh high at 1255, finding temporary support at 1226, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1182/1255 ascend / daily 20 SMA, above which consolidative phase is under way. Weak near-term studies see risk of further easing, which is expected to commence on completion of consolidative phase and to focus 1218, 50% retracement / daily Kijun-sen line. Last Friday’s and weekly close in red, keep the price action pressured, with the upside being so far capped at 1234 and potential extended action higher, to be limited at 1240, previous base and 50% of 1254/1226 descend.

Res: 1231; 1234; 1237; 1240
Sup: 1226; 1221; 1218; 1210