EUR/JPY Might Present A Classic Sell Opportunity (Extract From Weekly Market Forecast 15th Of June 2014)
The euro moved lower against some of the major currencies, including the Japanese yen. The EUR/JPY pair has breached the 200-day moving average, which is a bearish sign in the medium term. I think the pair might reach the 135.00 level in the days to follow. So, selling rallies should be preferred, in my opinion.
There is a monster resistance around the 139.20-40 levels. There is a possibility of a short-term correction in the pair. If the pair corrects higher from the current levels towards the mentioned resistance zone, stops and forms a bearish divergence, then we can jump into a sell trade. Remember, the 140.00 resistance zone should hold in order for this trade setup to be valid.
Initial target should be around the 137.20 level, and final target could be around the 136.00 level. Stop should be placed above the 140.00 level.
Major events scheduled in the upcoming week
This past week was a mostly ranging week with the US dollar was seen losing some ground. One of the most interesting pairs was the GBP/USD. The rate hike expectation of the market was increased heavily after the BOE’s Mark Carney speech. As a result, the GBP/USD pair was seen gaining a lot of ground during this past week. The pair climbed towards the 1.70 level. It looks like that the pair might break the all-important 1.70 level and trade higher during the upcoming week. The EUR/USD pair remained almost unchanged during this past week, but providing signs of establishing in the short term.
Let us look at all major events lined up in the upcoming week.
Sunday– RBA Assist Gov Kent’s speech.
Monday– Euro zone CPI data, NY empire state manufacturing index and RBA meeting minutes.
Tuesday– Swiss PPI, UK CPI, German ZEW economic sentiment, US building permits, US CPI, US housing starts and Japan’s trade balance data.
Wednesday–MPC meeting minutes, FOMC interest rate decision, Fed’s chair speech and New Zealand’s GDP data.
Thursday– SNB interest rate decision, UK retail sales, US initial jobless claims and Philadelphia fed manufacturing index.
Friday–German PPI data, Canadian CPI and Euro zone consumer confidence.