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EUR/AUD Testing Key Resistance

ByFan Yang
Published 09/21/2014, 10:10 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

EUR/AUD has been bearish since late January, when it made the high on the year at 1.5831. Since then, the pair has been making lower highs and lower lows, finding support at 1.3788 in early September.

Then, we saw a V-shape reversal rally that is now breaking the falling trendline. However, we can see the breakout as tentative and would better descrive EUR/AUD as consolidating aroudn the trendline. There is still the 100-day simple moving average, and the 1.4478 high. Until price breaks above 1.4480, we still have lower highs and lower lows. Also, the daily RSI is right around 60. If the RSI fails to clear above 60, the bearish momentum is still maintained.

While there are still signs that the bearish trend is not over, the v-shape reversal does threaten to break these signs in this upcoming week.

EUR/AUD Daily Chart 9/22

EUR/AUD Daily Chart

If price does break the aforementioned resistance factors, we should limit the bullish outlook to 1.48, where the 200-day SMA resides.

The 4H chart shows a bullish trend in September that has a strong "impulse" structure. This suggests the beginning of an uptrend or a major consolidation/bullish correction. Now, if price falls below 1.43, we can expect some bearish attempt. But if price can hold above 1.40, we still have more consolidation/bullish correction. Otherwise, below 1.40, it will be even more unclear, but we should probably have bearish bias toward 1.3850.

Now, if price can climb back above 1.43, we should look for that bullish correction scenario, again with the maximum bullish outlook to 1.48.
In any case, other than a near-term bearish oultook for a break below 1.43, we will have to wait for some more clues. We do have to shift the market from bearish to neutral-bearish.

EUR/AUD 4H Chart 9/22
EUR/AUD 4 Hour Chart

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