Investing.com - Financial Markets Worldwide
Get 40% Off
Get 40% Off
🚨 Volatile Markets? Find Hidden Gems for Serious OutperformanceFind Stocks Now

Economic Activity Composite

ByEric De Groot
Published 07/27/2015, 12:37 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
If the Fed is going to use the pretense of economic strength to raise rates, it shouldn't procrastinate or risks losing face to a business cycle proclaimed manageable or dead by many. The invisible hand, the true driver of the business cycle and global economic 'policy', has already begun the process.
Business Cycle

Average weekly initial claims (AWIC), one of many inputs that comprises the US Economic Activity Composite (EAC), up ticked through the second week of July. AWIC's (chart 1) and EAC's (chart 2) negative and positive trend oscillators maintain the prosperity (growth phase) within the business cycle.

Prosperity, however, is aging rapidly. A series of lower highs since 2013 (chart 2) and long-term cycle close proximity to extreme concentration (red boxes - chart 3) suggest an aging trend that's leading a transition from prosperity to liquidation (economic contraction). This transition, confirmed by AWIC's upside breakout of the 2009 downtrend and/or sustained negative close of the EAC oscillators, should be widely recognized by the majority in 2016.
Initial Claims, Trend Oscillators
SPX, London Gold, Economic Activity
SPX, Initial Claims, AWIC

Headline: U.S. jobless claims drop to 4 1-1/2-year low

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits last week fell to its lowest level in more than 41-1/2 years, suggesting the labor market maintained a solid pace of job growth in July.

The sturdy jobs picture together with a strengthening housing market brings the Federal Reserve a step closer to raising interest rates this year.

Latest comments

Install Our App
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.