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ECB Press Conference: Will Market Expectations Meet Reality?

Published 09/06/2012, 07:31 AM
Updated 01/01/2017, 02:20 AM
Sweden surprises market with rate cut

Economic Data

(FR) France Q2 ILO Unemployment Rate: 10.2% v 10.2%e; Mainland Unemployment Rate: 9.7% v 9.8%e; Mainland Unemployment Change: +52K v +58K prior

(UK) Aug Halifax House Prices M/M: -0.4% v +0.2%e; 3M/3M: -0.9% v -0.8%e

(CZ) Czech July Industrial Output Y/Y: 4.2% v 1.7%e; Construction Output Y/Y: -0.5% v -9.2% prior

(CZ) Czech July Trade Balance (CZK): 25.8B v 21.0Be

(HU) Hungary July Preliminary Trade Balance: €457.5M v €460.0Me

(SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) cuts its Repo Rate by 25bps to 1.25%; not expected and lowered its rate path outlook through 2014

(NL) Netherlands Aug CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.4%e

(NL) Netherlands Aug CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.7%e

(SE) Sweden July Service Production M/M: -0.6% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 2.4% prior

(UK) Aug New Car Registrations Y/Y: 0.1% v 9.3% prior

(CZ) Czech Q2 Current Account: -€0.3B v +€0.9B prior

(IT) Italy July Non-EU Foreign Trade Balance: +€1.84B v -€452M y/y

(EU) Euro Zone Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.5% v -0.4%e

(EU) Euro Zone Q2 Preliminary Household Consumption Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Govt Expenditures Q/Q: +0.1% v -0.2%e; Gross Fixed Capital Q/Q: -0.8% v -0.6%e

(GR) Greece Jun Unemployment Rate: 24.4% v 23.5% prior

(IS) Israel Aug Foreign Currency Balance: $75.6B v $75.4B prior

(ZA) South Africa Aug SACCI Business Confidence: 95.0 v 90.9 prior

Fixed Income
(ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €3.502B vs. €2.5-3.5B indicated range in 2014, 2015 and 2016 Bono Bonds

Sells €682M in 3.4% April 2014 Bono; Avg Yield 2.798% v 4.706% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.01x v 3.96x prior; Maximum Yield 2.946% v 4.791% prior, tail bps v 8.5bps prior

Sells €1.43B in 4.00% July 2015 Bono; Avg Yield 3.676% v 5.086% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 2.28x prior; Maximum Yield 3.774% v 5.197% prior, tail: bps v 11.1bps prior

Sells €1.39B in 4.25% Oct 2016 Bono; Avg Yield 4.603% v 5.971% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.9x v 2.72x prior; Max Yield 4.694% v 6.059% prior; tail bps v 8.8bps

(FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total €7.98B €7.0-8.0B in 2017, 2022 and 2027 OAT Bonds

Sold €1.53B in 4.25% in Oct 2017 OAT; avg yield 1.05% v 1.89% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.73x v 3.57x prior

Sold €2.998B in 3.00% Apr 2022 OAT; avg yield 2.21% v 2.53% prior; (Lowest yield since at least 1999 for 10 year) Bid-to-cover: 2.1x v 1.93x prior

Sold €3.45B in new 2.75% Oct 2027 OAT ; Avg Yield 2.85% v 2.90% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.58x v 1.94x prior

(SE) Sweden sold SEK500M in I/L 2017 bonds, avg yield -0.2862%

(HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold total HUF62.5B vs. HUF55B target in 2015, 2017 and 2022 Bonds

Notes/Observations
Market await clarity on planned ECB bond purchases to help lower European yields - question being will hope meet reality on the details?

Australia employment data come in weaker than expected with a slight dip; Overall Unemployment Rate improves but interest Rate cut expectations not altered.

Sweden unexpectedly cuts its Repo Rate and lowers its rate path through 2014 period.

Equities
FTSE 100 +0.80% at 5,700, DAX +1.4% at 7,058, CAC-40 +1.2% at 3446, IBEX-35 +1.5% at 7,608, FTSE MIB +1.4% at 15,339, SMI +0.50% at 6459, S&P 500 +0.70% at 1412.75

European equity markets are higher across the board, as Spanish and Italian bond yields have moved sharply lower ahead of the later today ECB meeting. The peripheral indices (IBEX-35 and FTSE MIB) have so far led the gains on the session. Most European banks are trading in positive territory led by German, French and Italian financials. Following the earlier gains seen in Chinese equities, resource related companies are trading broadly higher.

UK-listed platinum miner Lonmin [LMI.UK] is higher by over 4%, after it was reported that the firm signed a labor accord with 3 unions to reopen the wage talks related to the Marikana mine. Whitbread [WTB.UK] is up by more than 5%, following the release of its Q2 sales report. Shares of retailer Dixons [DXNS.UK] have advanced by more than 1.5%, as the company reported 5% y/y growth for its Q1 like for like sales.

William Morrison [MRW.UK] is higher by over 4% on its H1 earnings report. In Italy, Luxottica [LUX.IT] is lower by over 6%, as 18M of the company's shares were sold in a placement. In Germany, Deutsche Boerse [DB1.DE] has underperformed the DAX index on speculation that the firm could issue a profit warning. German solar makers are trading broadly higher after the EU Commission launched an anti-dumping probe into Chinese solar panel imports.

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