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Earnings Growth Finally Turns Positive

Published 10/21/2016, 05:35 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

The Q3 earnings season is on track to be the first quarter to show positive earnings growth after 5 quarters of back-to-back declines. The growth pace is barely in positive territory at this stage, with the aggregate Q3 earnings growth for the S&P 500 index currently at +0.1%. This growth pace will most likely improve further in the coming days, but even this low growth pace is an improvement over what we have become used to seeing in recent reporting cycles.

The chart below shows the evolving Q3 earnings growth for the S&P 500 index contrasted with declines in the preceding 5 quarters and expectations of positive growth in Q4. Please note that the +0.1% earnings growth for Q3 compares to the -2.9% decline expected in earnings at the start of this month.

The growth angle isn’t the only favorable aspect of the ongoing Q3 earnings season. Positive surprises are notably more numerous relative to other recent periods and estimates for the current period (2016 Q4) appear to be holding up fairly well. As we mentioned in our weekly Earnings Trends report – Is the Earnings Improvement for Real? – continuation of this trend through the rest of this earnings season will add to confidence in expectations for the coming quarters when the growth picture is expected to ramp up in a material way.

Q3 Earnings Scorecard (as of 10/21/2016)

We now have Q3 results from 116 S&P 500 members or 23.2% of the index’s total membership that combined account for almost 30% of the index’s total market capitalization. Total earnings for these 116 companies are up +3.3% from the same period last year on +1.8% higher revenues, with 80.2% beating EPS estimates and 62.9% coming ahead of revenue estimates.

The table below shows the scorecard of these 116 index members. The reporting cycle really ramps up this week, with more than 800 companies reporting results, including 171 S&P 500 members. By the end of this week, we will have seen Q3 results from 57% of the index’s total membership.

This is better performance than we have seen from the same group of 116 index members in other recent periods, as the comparison charts below show.

In the comparison chart below, we are comparing the proportion of S&P 500 members that are beating both EPS and revenue estimates in Q3 with historical periods. As you can see, Q3 is tracking notably above other recent periods.

The picture emerging from the above comparison chart is in-line with our modestly favorable commentary on the Q2 earnings season when we were detecting an ever-so-slight improvement in the growth picture. Earnings growth was in negative territory in Q2 – the 5th quarter in a row of earnings declines for the index – but the pace of declines was nevertheless an improvement over what we had seen in the preceding two quarters.

This gave rise to the narrative that the worst was likely behind us now on the growth front and that the picture will steadily be improving going forward. We are clearly seeing confirmation of that view in the Q3 results thus far.

Is the Improvement All Finance Driven?

As we discussed last week in Reassuring Start to Q3 Earnings Season, results from the Finance sector have been particularly positive this reporting cycle.

For the Finance sector, we now have Q3 results from almost half of the sector’s total market cap in the index. Total earnings for these are up +7.9% from the same period last year on +5.1% higher revenues, with an unusually high 90% beating EPS and an almost equally high 86.7% beating revenue expectations.

This is better performance than we have seen from these Finance sector companies in a while, as the below comparison charts show.

Excluding the Finance sector from the aggregated reported picture at this stage, total earnings for the rest of S&P 500 members that have reported results will be up +0.8% on an equivalent revenue growth pace, with 80.2% beating EPS estimates and 62.9% beating revenue estimates.

The comparison charts below show the aggregate reported growth picture, with and without the Finance sector.

What the above chart shows is that the growth picture becomes less notable without the Finance sector, but it is still an improvement over the recent past.

Q3 Expectations As a Whole

Combining the actual results from the 116 S&P 500 members with estimates from the still-to-come 384 index members, total Q3 earnings are now expected to be up +0.1% from the same period last year on +1.5% higher revenues. This would compare to 2016 Q2 earnings growth of -2.8% on +0.2% higher revenues.

The table below shows the summary picture for Q3 earnings, revenues and margins contrasted with the corresponding results from Q2.

As you can see, Energy still remains the biggest drag on the aggregate growth picture, the Autos and Transportation as the other major growth laggards. Tough comparisons at Ford (F) and the air carriers, particularly United (UAL) and American (AAL), explain the growth issues in those two sectors.

For the two biggest sectors, Technology earnings are expected to be up +1.1% on -1.0% lower revenues while Finance earnings are expected to be up +14.4% on +1.4% higher revenues. The Tech sector’s weak showing is solely a function of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) (AAPL), which is expected to see earnings decline -19.8% from the same period last year on -9.1% lower revenues. Excluding the Apple drag, the Tech sector’s earnings would be up +6.4%. A strong report from Apple on Tuesday will have a big impact on both the sector’s and index’s growth picture.

Expectations Beyond Q3

The chart below shows current bottom-up consensus earnings expectations for the index in 2016 Q3 and the following four quarters contrasted with actual results in the preceding four quarters. Please note that the columns represent bottom-up earnings totals for each quarter in billions of dollars while the line represents the quarterly growth rates. At the start of the Q3 earnings season, growth was expected to be in negative territory in Q3 for the 6th quarter in a row, with positive growth expected to resume from Q4 (+5.1%) onwards. But as indicated at the top, growth in Q3 has turned positive already (up +0.1%).

The Energy sector drag is expected to end in 2016 Q4 and beyond, as the chart below of the sector’s earnings shows.

The improved Energy sector outlook makes sense, given shifting comparisons and the recent momentum in oil prices. But we will have to wait to find out if estimates for the other sectors will hold up as companies report Q3 results and provide guidance for Q4 and beyond.

It will be interesting to see if the decelerated pace of negative revisions that we saw the last earnings season will get repeated this time as well.

Note: Sheraz Mian regularly provides earnings analysis on Zacks.com and appears frequently in the print and electronic media. In addition to this Earnings Preview article, he publishes the Zacks Earnings Trends report every week.

If you want an email notification each time Sheraz publishes a new article, please click here>>>

Here is a list of the 810 companies reporting this week, including 171 S&P 500 member.

Company Ticker Current Qtr Year-Ago Qtr Last EPS Surprise % Report Day Time
V F CORPVFC1.151.075.88%MondayBTO
KIMBERLY CLARKKMB1.541.513.38%MondayBTO
BANK OF HAWAIIBOH0.990.799.57%MondayBTO
T-MOBILE US INCTMUS0.220.1513.64%MondayBTO
B/E AEROSPACEBEAV0.80.732.44%MondayBTO
RESTAURANT BRNDQSR0.410.3217.14%MondayBTO
WESTERN ALLIANCWAL0.650.531.64%MondayBTO
ACCO BRANDS CPACCO0.280.288.70%MondayBTO
BANK OF MARINBMRC0.790.79-1.25%MondayBTO
EAGLE MATERIALSEXP1.281.118.14%MondayBTO
PETMED EXPRESSPETS0.260.226.67%MondayBTO
OPUS BANKOPB0.610.44-29.23%MondayBTO
SOHU.COM INCSOHU-1.6419.09%MondayBTO
CHANGYOU.COMCYOU0.471.5510.71%MondayBTO
BOISE CASCADEBCC0.540.5644.12%MondayBTO
KONINKLIJKE PHLPHGN/A0.27-MondayBTO
VISA INC-AV0.730.622.99%MondayAMC
ZIONS BANCORPZION0.50.414.76%MondayAMC
AVALONBAY CMMTYAVB2.122.02-2.87%MondayAMC
COMPASS MINERLSCMP0.280.85.88%MondayAMC
GREENHILL & COGHL0.410.0234.78%MondayAMC
EVEREST RE LTDRE4.564.5516.54%MondayAMC
ENTERPRISE FINLEFSC0.560.4812.96%MondayAMC
SUPERIOR ENERGYSPN-0.57-0.467.02%MondayAMC
SWIFT TRANSPORTSWFT0.320.319.68%MondayAMC
BRIXMOR PPTY GPBRX0.510.510.00%MondayAMC
AMER CAMPUS CTYACC0.430.421.89%MondayAMC
AGREE RLTY CORPADC0.640.610.00%MondayAMC
AGNC INVESTMENTAGNC0.550.519.80%MondayAMC
ALLISON TRANSMNALSN0.240.71-42.86%MondayAMC
COSTAMARE INCCMRE0.350.462.44%MondayAMC
FIRST INTST MTFIBK0.550.520.00%MondayAMC
CORELOGIC INCCLGX0.580.485.45%MondayAMC
HEIDRICK & STRGHSII0.340.416.67%MondayAMC
CADENCE DESIGNCDNS0.180.22-5.56%MondayAMC
INDEP BANK GRPIBTX0.740.527.25%MondayAMC
ELECTRN IMAGINGEFII0.140.21-60.71%MondayAMC
HOMESTREET INCHMST0.760.4232.35%MondayAMC
KNOWLES CORPKN0.230.1150.00%MondayAMC
VASCULAR SOLUTNVASC0.310.2710.00%MondayAMC
CEMENTOS PACASMCPAC0.130.16-25.00%MondayAMC
OPGEN INCOPGN-0.27-0.38-32.14%MondayAMC
CRANE COCR1.011.0318.63%MondayAMC
WABASH NATIONALWNC0.480.4717.02%MondayAMC
INTERSIL CORPISIL0.150.110.00%MondayAMC
RAMBUS INCRMBS0.10.1220.00%MondayAMC
SONIC CORPSONC0.440.432.38%MondayAMC
BERKSHIRE HILLSBHLB0.550.540.00%MondayAMC
SHERWIN WILLIAMSHW4.333.97-2.64%TuesdayBTO
BAKER-HUGHESBHI-0.43-0.05-50.00%TuesdayBTO
LILLY ELI & COLLY0.960.891.18%TuesdayBTO
CATERPILLAR INCCAT0.750.7513.54%TuesdayBTO
MERCK & CO INCMRK0.980.961.09%TuesdayBTO
ENTERGY CORPETR1.861.9201.94%TuesdayBTO
UNDER ARMOUR-AUA0.250.230.00%TuesdayBTO
PACCAR (NASDAQ:PCAR) INCPCAR0.991.212.91%TuesdayBTO
BAXTER INTLBAX0.440.4117.95%TuesdayBTO
GENERAL MOTORSGM1.441.522.37%TuesdayBTO
PROCTER & GAMBLPG0.980.986.76%TuesdayBTO
WATERS CORPWAT1.571.428.97%TuesdayBTO
FREEPT MC COP-BFCX0.19-0.15-100.00%TuesdayBTO
MASCOMAS0.440.349.52%TuesdayBTO
DU PONT (EI) DEDD0.210.1312.73%TuesdayBTO
3M COMMM2.142.050.00%TuesdayBTO
VALERO ENERGYVLO0.922.795.94%TuesdayBTO
NIELSEN HOLDNGSNLSN0.710.67-2.90%TuesdayBTO
WHIRLPOOL CORPWHR3.883.454.48%TuesdayBTO
KEYCORP NEWKEY0.260.27-3.57%TuesdayBTO
UTD TECHS CORPUTX1.681.6710.30%TuesdayBTO
CENTENE CORPCNC1.150.8419.44%TuesdayBTO
MARSH &MCLENNANMMC0.690.630.00%TuesdayBTO
CORNING INCGLW0.380.3415.63%TuesdayBTO
LOCKHEED MARTINLMT2.862.7713.70%TuesdayBTO
RYDER SYSR1.651.741.30%TuesdayBTO
PENTAIR PLCPNR0.730.970.91%TuesdayBTO
WADDELL&REED -AWDR0.510.7622.92%TuesdayBTO
FIRST BNCRP P RFBP0.10.070.00%TuesdayBTO
AK STEEL HLDGAKS0.130.04300.00%TuesdayBTO
BRINKER INTLEAT0.550.560.81%TuesdayBTO
HUBBELL INCHUBB1.51.276.99%TuesdayBTO
KKR & CO LPKKR0.6-0.37130.00%TuesdayBTO
JANUS CAP GRPJNS0.230.22-4.55%TuesdayBTO
SCHNITZER STEELSCHN0.430.31228.57%TuesdayBTO
TRANSUNIONTRU0.340.293.13%TuesdayBTO
DIXIE GRP INCDXYN0.070.03300.00%TuesdayBTO
NORSK HYDRO ADRNHYDYN/A0.07-TuesdayBTO
SPRINT CORPS-0.07-0.1325.00%TuesdayBTO
TD AMERITRADEAMTD0.380.42.63%TuesdayBTO
JETBLUE AIRWAYSJBLU0.60.588.16%TuesdayBTO
SPIRIT AIRLINESSAVE1.11.353.74%TuesdayBTO
WATSCO INCWSO1.91.64-10.34%TuesdayBTO
ALLEGHENY TECHATI-0.11-0.2946.15%TuesdayBTO
WABTECHWAB0.991.02-1.87%TuesdayBTO
ASBURY AUTO GRPABG1.621.430.61%TuesdayBTO
CIT GROUPCIT0.790.2613.92%TuesdayBTO
EXTENDED STAYSTAY0.340.3310.71%TuesdayBTO
ASTEC INDS INCASTE0.370.15.33%TuesdayBTO
NOVARTIS AG-ADRNVS1.181.273.39%TuesdayBTO
CAPELLA EDUCATNCPLA0.620.675.68%TuesdayBTO
COMMVAULT SYSTMCVLT-0.03-0.18-280.00%TuesdayBTO
CYNOSURE INC-ACYNO0.270.2120.69%TuesdayBTO
FLAGSTAR BANCPFBC0.640.6911.86%TuesdayBTO
MOBILE MINI INCMINI0.380.35-16.67%TuesdayBTO
NAVIGANT CONSLTNCI0.290.326.92%TuesdayBTO
FIRST MERCHANTSFRME0.490.456.52%TuesdayBTO
TENNANT COTNC0.620.6819.72%TuesdayBTO
ANIXTER INTLAXE1.341.211.54%TuesdayBTO
COMP TASKCTG0.030.1366.67%TuesdayBTO
MEDIDATA SOLUTNMDSO0.130.1244.44%TuesdayBTO
PEOPL BNCP-OHIOPEBO0.430.227.32%TuesdayBTO
RTI SURGICALRTIX0.020.05-100.00%TuesdayBTO
ALLEGIANCE BCSHABTX0.420.48.11%TuesdayBTO
CENTL EUR MEDIACETV-0.18-0.17-TuesdayBTO
NEW ORIENTAL EDEDUN/A0.82-3.12%TuesdayBTO
II-VI INCORPIIVI0.230.2766.67%TuesdayBTO
MILLICOM INTLMIICFN/A0.17-TuesdayBTO
ORANGE-ADRORANN/AN/A-TuesdayBTO
SENSATA TECHNOLST0.740.721.39%TuesdayBTO
LIBERTY PPTY TRLPT0.670.676.25%TuesdayBTO
GREENBRIER COSGBX1.122.022.75%TuesdayBTO
GRAPHIC PKG HLDGPK0.210.20.00%TuesdayBTO
AVANGRID INCAGR0.6N/A-36.00%TuesdayBTO
POPULAR INCBPOP0.90.93.66%TuesdayBTO
FRANKLIN ELECFELE0.480.454.08%TuesdayBTO
SELECT INCOMESIR0.720.72-2.70%TuesdayBTO
TRINITY BIOTECHTRIB0.050.10.00%TuesdayBTO
STORA ENSO -ADRSEOAY0.180.15-30.00%TuesdayBTO
AIR LIQUIDE-ADRAIQUYN/AN/A-TuesdayBTO
DOCTOR REDDYSRDYN/A0.64-TuesdayBTO
POLARIS INDUSPII0.452.31.87%TuesdayBTO
USG CORPUSG0.450.52-4.17%TuesdayBTO
FIAT CHRYSLERFCAU0.340.2224.39%TuesdayBTO
APPLE INCAAPL1.651.962.16%TuesdayAMC
EDWARDS LIFESCIEW0.680.548.57%TuesdayAMC
OWENS-ILLINOISOI0.660.574.84%TuesdayAMC
CINCINNATI FINLCINF0.851.049.62%TuesdayAMC
CHIPOTLE MEXICNCMG1.634.59-11.22%TuesdayAMC
CH ROBINSON WWDCHRW0.970.960.00%TuesdayAMC
EXPRESS SCRIPTSESRX1.741.450.00%TuesdayAMC
BARD C R INCBCR2.552.284.07%TuesdayAMC
CAPITAL ONE FINCOF1.941.99-5.38%TuesdayAMC
BOSTON PPTYSBXP1.431.412.14%TuesdayAMC
AT&T (NYSE:T) INCT0.740.740.00%TuesdayAMC
DISCOVER FIN SVDFS1.481.383.52%TuesdayAMC
CHUBB LTDCB2.642.74-0.44%TuesdayAMC
JUNIPER NETWRKSJNPR0.410.485.41%TuesdayAMC
TORCHMARK CORPTMK1.121.080.91%TuesdayAMC
UDR INCUDR0.450.420.00%TuesdayAMC
AKAMAI TECHAKAM0.480.53-6.00%TuesdayAMC
TOTAL SYS SVCTSS0.670.61.47%TuesdayAMC
ASSURANT INCAIZ1.421.710.71%TuesdayAMC
RANGE RESOURCESRRC-0.23-0.0527.59%TuesdayAMC
AMERIPRISE FINLAMP2.412.35-1.76%TuesdayAMC
EQUITY RESIDENTEQR0.780.87-1.30%TuesdayAMC
VERTEX PHARMVRTX-0.04-0.450.00%TuesdayAMC
NUVASIVE INCNUVA0.410.3511.11%TuesdayAMC
HIGHWOODS PPTYSHIW0.810.772.50%TuesdayAMC
QTS REALTY TRSTQTS0.650.613.28%TuesdayAMC
RETAIL OPPURTUNROIC0.260.263.85%TuesdayAMC
COVANTA HOLDINGCVA0.150.22-340.00%TuesdayAMC
MACK CALI CORPCLI0.550.513.77%TuesdayAMC
TANGER FACT OUTSKT0.60.595.36%TuesdayAMC
BERKLEY (WR) CPWRB0.890.913.80%TuesdayAMC
PS BUSINESS PKSPSB1.41.23.03%TuesdayAMC
BLACKSTONE MRTGBXMT0.610.690.00%TuesdayAMC
FIRST BK HAM NJFRBA0.140.080.00%TuesdayAMC
LG DISPLAY-ADRLPL0.250.25100.00%TuesdayAMC
UNISYSUIS0.270.67224.00%TuesdayAMC
WEATHERFORD INTWFT-0.24-0.056.67%TuesdayAMC
NABORS INDNBR-0.33-0.1439.53%TuesdayAMC
CDN NATL RY COCNI0.920.953.61%TuesdayAMC
HERSHA HOSPTLYHT0.640.679.88%TuesdayAMC
HEALTHCARE TRSTHTA0.40.39-2.44%TuesdayAMC
RESMED INCRMD0.630.580.00%TuesdayAMC
RINGCENTRAL INCRNG-0.09-0.08-12.50%TuesdayAMC
MCDERMOTT INTLMDR-0.060.09300.00%TuesdayAMC
BALLARD PWR SYSBLDP-0.03-0.030.00%TuesdayAMC
DIGITALGLOBEDGI0.090.12142.86%TuesdayAMC
NCR CORP-NEWNCR0.810.7810.77%TuesdayAMC
NEFF CORP-ANEFF0.440.51-5.41%TuesdayAMC
ABAXIS INCABAX0.360.34-9.09%TuesdayAMC
ACADIA RLTY TRAKR0.340.39-2.63%TuesdayAMC
CHEMICAL FINLCHFC0.670.6510.77%TuesdayAMC
CARRIAGE SVCS-ACSV0.380.33-7.50%TuesdayAMC
FRANKLIN ST PPTFSP0.260.273.85%TuesdayAMC
IROBOT CORPIRBT0.420.4254.55%TuesdayAMC
NATL COMMERCENCOM0.390.268.33%TuesdayAMC
TRUSTMARK CPTRMK0.460.42-2.44%TuesdayAMC
WESBANCO INCWSBC0.570.585.36%TuesdayAMC
CEB INCCEB0.80.949.64%TuesdayAMC
BANK OF NT BUTRNTB0.49N/A-TuesdayAMC
ROCKY BRANDSRCKY0.170.24-195.83%TuesdayAMC
WEST MARINE INCWMAR0.170.2-7.53%TuesdayAMC
ZIX CORPZIXI0.020.07-33.33%TuesdayAMC
CYBEROPTICSCYBE0.06-0.08-TuesdayAMC
ROCKET FUEL INCFUEL-0.22-0.3132.43%TuesdayAMC
LOGITECH INTLLOGI0.160.18200.00%TuesdayAMC
STANLEY FURN COSTLY-0.030.03-900.00%TuesdayAMC
USANA HLTH SCIUSNA2.111.927.25%TuesdayAMC
PANERA BREAD COPNRA1.341.321.71%TuesdayAMC
PANDORA MEDIAP-0.21-0.0213.33%TuesdayAMC
CARLISLE COS INCSL1.671.567.36%TuesdayAMC
MERCURY SYSTEMSMRCY0.050.1466.67%TuesdayAMC
RADISYS CORPRSYS0.010.0450.00%TuesdayAMC
ETHAN ALLEN INTETH0.460.4611.76%TuesdayAMC
STERLING BANCPSTL0.290.25-3.57%TuesdayAMC
COCA-COLA FEMSAKOF0.670.58-31.65%TuesdayAMC
ARLINGTON ASSETAI0.611.35-9.30%TuesdayAMC
DASSAULT SY-ADRDASTY0.570.655.36%TuesdayN/A
UMB FINL CORPUMBF0.760.469.59%TuesdayN/A
GARMIN LTDGRMN0.530.5129.85%WednesdayBTO
BOSTON SCIENTIFBSX0.270.240.00%WednesdayBTO
LABORATORY CPLH2.292.070.87%WednesdayBTO
WASTE MGMT-NEWWM0.80.744.23%WednesdayBTO
STATE ST CORPSTT1.251.1615.87%WednesdayBTO
AVERY DENNISONAVY10.877.92%WednesdayBTO
DTE ENERGY CODTE1.511.48.89%WednesdayBTO
WEC ENERGY GRPWEC0.590.613.64%WednesdayBTO
COMCAST CORP ACMCSA0.920.81.22%WednesdayBTO
BIOGEN INCBIIB4.974.4811.09%WednesdayBTO
INGERSOLL RANDIR1.291.216.15%WednesdayBTO
NORFOLK SOUTHRNNSC1.451.570.74%WednesdayBTO
SIMON PROPERTYSPG2.682.540.38%WednesdayBTO
BOEING COBA2.622.5250.00%WednesdayBTO
GENL DYNAMICSGD2.372.286.09%WednesdayBTO
HUNTINGTON BANCHBAN0.210.180.00%WednesdayBTO
NORTHROP GRUMMNNOC2.812.414.00%WednesdayBTO
HESS CORPHES-1.21-1.0311.90%WednesdayBTO
COCA COLA COKO0.480.513.45%WednesdayBTO
NASDAQ INCNDAQ0.910.883.41%WednesdayBTO
MONDELEZ INTLMDLZ0.430.4210.00%WednesdayBTO
FRANKLIN RESOURBEN0.690.5916.67%WednesdayBTO
FLIR SYSTEMSFLIR0.440.4-2.86%WednesdayBTO
WYNDHAM WORLDWDWYN1.871.782.94%WednesdayBTO
SOUTHWEST AIRLUV0.870.94-2.46%WednesdayBTO
LEAR CORPORATNLEA3.022.569.25%WednesdayBTO

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