It’s been a slow start to trading on Friday, with yesterday’s bank holiday in the US weighing heavily on volumes and a severe lack of news flow leaving markets void of any significant catalysts.
While today is not a bank holiday, trade is likely to remain very thin with many in the US opting to extend the Thanksgiving holiday into the weekend. The lack of scheduled economic data and events today is unlikely to help matters, with the only notable releases being the services and composite PMI figures shortly after the open. Both of these are expected to be relatively unchanged so may well just pass by without attracting too much attention, unless of course the numbers deviate significantly from expectations.
It would appear traders are using this period of light trade to lock in some profits on the recent dollar surge, with the greenback off around a third of one percent today. The rally has been relentless since Donald Trump’s election victory which quickly prompted a repricing of interest rate expectations as markets prepare for the President-elects bold spending plans.
The dollar’s decline today is giving commodities some welcome relief, particularly precious metals such as gold, which has come under substantial pressure in recent weeks. Having broken below $1,200 on Wednesday, gold is looking quite bearish and very susceptible to a hawkish Fed outlook next month. We may continue to see it correct today but it’s likely to run into some resistance around $1,200 should it even get that far.
