Complications? Oh dang, yeah.
That’s one way of describing it. Other words would not be suitable. If nothing else the break levels worked quite well and seem to be playing out the alternatives. Even then the sharp follow-through higher in the dollar has provided its own complications, but ones that we should be able to stay clear of as long as the structure is understood. The underlying dollar bearish analysis remains intact but is really being stretched on each wave to test the limits.
So, the challenge today is to navigate the nearby extremes and to work through the final stages, or at least what I feel are the final stages before the stronger directional waves can begin to impose their rights. The larger dollar downside targets remain pretty much intact so it’s more about confirming the reversal lower.
The Aussie’s early losses turned into a slightly deeper correction than I had hoped, but has eventually turned itself around to head lower. We should see more losses today but not quite with the same robustness. We should see some subsequent corrective behaviour and that will be the next hurdle to overcome.
The USD/JPY didn’t surprise with its early failure to break above 102.40 but ended the day higher following a correction. This still has a little way to go and seems to require the given the target I had in EURJPY was overstepped only by a few points. This remains in a consolidation and should do so for today at least but does have a clear range of resistance. This should be observed when considering
The USD/JPY at the very least. Of course the expectations in the EUR/USD cannot be ignored, but looks like having less influence in the early part of the day.
Overall the first half of the day looks to have the greatest uncertainty, but should end up with some tentative directional movement…