Market movers today
Today sees the release of the US Markit PMI services index for October, which has been more accurate than the ISM non-manufacturing index in recent quarters and while we saw a big jump in the latter index in September, the Markit index rose only slightly. This leaves us with a rather muddy picture of the current situation. If the PMI services index moves higher and closes the gap between the indices, it would be a strong signal for the services sector in Q4. We expect the services index to rise slightly higher to around 53. However, this would still be quite a weak level.
Financial markets will keep an eye out for news from the run-up to the expected start next year of negotiations over the UK's withdrawal from the EU.
The oil market will focus on the release of the weekly US inventory data today. API was said to report yesterday that inventories rose 4.75mb last week. The oil market will also monitor any comments from OPEC on the forthcoming deal to limit output.
In addition, the Swedish National Debt Office is set to release its new forecast for the net borrowing requirements for the remainder of 2016 and 2017. We expect a quite dramatic cut in net issuance, which might eventually be an issue for the Riksbank too, as the supply of assets to purchase in its QE programme would probably decrease further.
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