Market Movers
Today focus will be on global PMIs and any signs of weakness from China and emerging markets. The euro area manufacturing PMI has so far held up during 2015 despite declines in both the US manufacturing ISM and Chinese Caixin PMI. Nevertheless, we expect the latest downside surprise in the US manufacturing ISM to be mirrored in the euro area PMI figure and today we look for a decline to 51.8, which is a little below consensus of 52.0.
In the US regional PMIs for September have been mixed but suggest overall that the manufacturing sector is struggling with headwinds from a strong USD, elevated inventories and from fading global demand. We would thus not be surprised to see manufacturing PMI dropping closer to 50 in the coming months although we think such weakness will be short lived.
This afternoon ECB president Draghi holds his quarterly hearing in Brussels. The ECB members have sounded dovish lately and we expect Draghi to maintain his dovish tone from the latest ECB meeting in the beginning of September. However, given yesterday's market movements where a 50% probability of a 10bp deposit rate cut was priced, there is a risk that Draghi's comments will be a disappointment especially if he repeats that the ECB is not discussing the possibility of another rate cut.
In Norway, we expect the July unemployment rate (LFS) remained at 4.5 %.
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