Market movers today
Today, the US jobs report for November due out at 14:30 CET will be the main focus. Despite the moderate headline employment growth of 161,000, the October US jobs report was strong with declines in both the unemployment and underemployment rates and acceleration of wage growth to 2.8% y/y, the highest wage growth since 2009. This should be sufficient 'further evidence' for the FOMC to raise rates on 14 December, which is now also fully priced in by markets. For the November report we estimate non-farm payrolls increased by 170,000 (consensus: 180,000) in line with recent trends and estimate an unchanged unemployment rate at 4.9%. We also expect average hourly earnings increased 0.2% m/m implying an unchanged wage growth rate of 2.8% y/y, see also US Labour Market Monitor: November jobs report not a key determinant for Fed's decision to hike in December .
The Fed's Brainard and Tarullo (both 'dovish' voters) are scheduled to speak today.
We also get PMI Construction data for November in the UK. The November release will give insight into whether the downturn in the construction sector after Brexit continues to ease, despite the financial pressures on the industry from higher input prices due to the weaker GBP. We think there is currently limited upside potential for the construction sector, and estimate the PMI construction index to be unchanged at 52.6 in November.
In the Scandi countries, unemployment data for Norway and currency reserves data for Denmark are released today.
To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below