Market Movers
US retail sales is the main market mover today. We expect another solid increase in the core retail sales measure (ex autos, gasoline and building materials) of 0.3% m/m (in line with consensus) as consumption is getting a boost from lower gasoline prices and solid job growth. Headline retail sales will be dragged down by falling gasoline sales (driven by lower prices) and we expect an increase of 0.1% m/m. The US also releases industrial production and Empire index today.
We look for a further decline in the German ZEW expectations index. It has been declining moderately for five months and we expect it to fall again in September to 17 from 25 following the EM turmoil during August.
We expect that UK CPI inflation declined to 0.0% y/y in August from 0.1% y/y in July. The fall in headline inflation is due to lower non-energy industrial goods inflation and services inflation while changes in energy and food prices are not expected to contribute to either higher or lower inflation. Core inflation surprised on the upside in July and increased to 1.2% y/y. We expect that core inflation declined to 1.0% y/y in August from 1.2% y/y in July.
In Sweden Riksbank deputy governor Per Jansson gives a presentation on monetary policy and wage formation.
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