Market Movers
We expect the German ZEW expectations index to extend the decline in October but at a slower pace than in September, as indicated by the Sentix investor confidence released last week. The weakness in emerging markets and the Volkswagen (DE:VOWG) scandal are both weighing on the index.
We estimate UK CPI inflation of 0.0% m/m in September. While declining gasoline and diesel prices were a drag on inflation in September, we estimate that this was offset by higher inflation in the price of services. This is also the reason why we expect core inflation to have moved slightly higher in September.
US small business optimism for September is released this afternoon. The index has come off its high but remains above its 2011-2014 average.
Swedish inflation data are key for the Riksbank - past SEK weakness might push core inflation higher in September, see Scandi Markets.
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