Daily Technical Report: Major And Cross Currencies - May 16, 2013

EUR/USD - European Session

The downside movement pushed the pair toward the ascending support as shown on graph, as it failed yesterday to break it. Some upside correction might occur from the current levels; despite that the overall bearish move from 1.3710 isn’t over yet. We suggest an upside correctional move today. Breaking 1.2835 levels cancels the correction possibility, and extends bearishness towards the previous low at 1.2744.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2745, and key resistance at 1.2990.

The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, targeting 1.2560 as far as areas of 1.3270 remain intact.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading above 50% correction at 1.5220, which represents an intraday interval. We think that the overall downside move isn’t over yet; some bullish correction is possible to retest 1.5310 areas. These expectations require stability above 1.5190 with four-hour closing.

The trading range for this week is among key support at 1.5100, and key resistance at 1.5385.

The general trend over short term basis is to the downside as far as areas of 1.5770 remain intact, targeting 1.4355.

USD/JPY

The pair is still stable above 102.15 which is positive and might push the pair to achieve more gains. Linear Regression Indicators represents good support for the pair, as trading above 99.85 is positive while stability above 101.70 will also be considered positive today.

The trading range for today is among key support at 101.15 and key resistance at 103.75.

The general trend over short term basis is to the upside as far as areas of 96.50 remain intact, targeting 105.60.


The USD/CHF pair fluctuated sharply yesterday, and remained limited above 61.8% correction at 0.9610. Stability below maintains the possibility of extending the upside move to test 0.9765 levels valid. The par might face a slight downside correction, but we suggest an upside move for today due to stability above 0.9610, targeting 78.6% correction.

The trading range for today is among key support at 0.9515, and key resistance at 0.9865.

The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, stable at levels 0.9775 targeting 0.8860.



USD/CAD

The pair touched 1.0215 levels before moving to the downside, then remained limited above 1.0140 keeping the possibility of extending the upside move valid. Linear Regression Indicators are still positive, supporting our intraday positive expectations that are based on the ascending channel as shown on graph.

The trading range for today is between the key support at 1.0075, and the key resistance at 1.0295.

The general trend over short term basis is to the upside, with steady daily closing above levels 0.9800 targeting 1.0485.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD is in extremely critical levels close to 0.9825, which is a key interval determining either a bullish correction or the continuation of bearishness. However, the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are reflecting oversold signals in turn. Linear Regression Indicators are trading with significant negativity. Due to the contradiction between momentum indicators and the pair's movement--existing at key 161.8% Fibonacci at 0.9825--we prefer to stand neutral.

- Trading range expected today is between the key support at 0.9670 and the key resistance at 0.9935.

- Short-term trend is downside, targeting 0.9400 if 1.0710 remains intact.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD is steady below 0.8280 despite the oversold signals Stochastic is displaying. This is a negative event that forces the pair's decline to 0.8160, then after to 0.8105. The status of the Linear Regression Indicators supports the continuation of the downtrend. We have built our expectations on the fact that the pair broke the bullish channel's support.

- Trading range expected today is between the key support at 0.8080 and the key resistance 0.8310.

- Short-term trend is bullish, targeting 0.8845 if 0.8130 remains intact on daily basis.

GBP/JPY

The GBP/JPY pair has been consolidating within a sideways range for the past few days, pushing towards the ascending trend lines shown on image. The short term bullish trend remains intact, so the bullish scenario is still favored. Only a break below 154.70 may threaten the bullish structure.

EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY pair retested the minor ascending support the carried the latest bullish wave, currently hesitating around it. Holding back below this trend line could push price lower, supported by the bearish divergence on RSI, for a possible retest of 130.40 horizontal support. We remain neutral, waiting for further confirmations of the next potential move.

EUR/GBP

The EUR/GBP pair retreated yesterday, after failing at 0.8500 level. Holding below 0.8500 keeps the chances of retesting 0.8400 level intact. On the other hand, a break above 0.8500 and the resistance of the falling wedge pattern may confirm an upside reversal. Until then, we remain bearish.