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Daily Shot: Syriza Mentions The War

Published 02/10/2015, 07:15 AM
Updated 03/19/2019, 04:00 AM

Let's start with a quick note on Greece. The nation's new government will need a bridge loan soon. A massive one.
Greece

Realizing that obtaining such a loan is a toll order, Syriza now claims Germany owes Greece EUR 162 billion in World War II reparations. And Greece has a "moral obligation" to "claim the [World War II] occupation loan and reparations". This was in reference to Germany's four-year occupation of Greece during the war and a loan that the Nazis forcibly took from the Greek central bank – which did not end well for Greece at the time.

German reaction? There is "zero" chance they will pay (via Daily Mail).

In spite of this mess with Greece, which could turn ugly when these debt payments are not made, investor sentiment in the Eurozone continues to improve.
Sentix

The question is how much damage will the Eurozone sustain from Grexit (which would include Greece's default). According to the history of such events over the past century, the damage to the EMU could be severe. Domino effect?
Eurozone
The Turkish lira has been under pressure again, hitting new lows against the dollar. Investors' view is that the central bank is not independent and Erdogan will continue pressuring it to cut interest rates.
USDTRY
Economic conditions in Russia continue to deteriorate. Inflation just hit 15% as the rouble's devaluation takes its toll.
Russia inflation

With the situation worsening, Russian president Vladimir Putin's apparatus successfully convinced the Russian people that their struggles are the result of some punishment inflicted by the US.

Of course trade volumes between Russia and the US had been relatively small, so the sanctions could not have caused much damage. Nevertheless, the amount of hatred for the US in Russia is rising quickly.

When I discussed this issue a couple of months back, a number of Russians made sure to let me know that I was a victim of US propaganda and there is no ill will for Western nations in Russia. I wonder if they believe this survey published by VOX is also part of some US conspiracy.
View of US
Now on to China where both the CPI and the PPI figures came in lower than consensus today. Risks of deflation in China are becoming quite real. With nominal rates remaining elevated, real rates are spiking. Monetary conditions are tightening in spite of the People's Bank of China's recent cut to the reserve requirement ratio.
China CPI

In fact, real rates have jumped across Asia-ex-Japan (AXJ) as a result of falling inflation. Many Asian central banks just don't have much experience with such low inflation measures and are behind the curve in lowering nominal rates. This tight monetary policy is pressuring economic growth.
AXJ
In Japan, longer dated government bond yields suddenly rose in recent days. It's not entirely clear what's causing this other than the recent move by major Japanese insurance firms to exit the longer dated JGB market (focusing on corporate debt instead). Also corporate issuance has been strong.
Japan 20-year
Singapore's foreign reserves declined sharply in recent months on weaker exports and the government's efforts to defend the currency.
Singapore reserves

So far the efforts to stabilise the Singapore dollar seem to have been unsuccessful as the declines continue (chart below shows USD appreciating against SGD).
SGD
India's growth accelerated sharply (much faster than consensus) on foreign investment, lower fuel costs, weaker currency and improved confidence.
India
Canada housing
In the United States, we can see the first signs of what could go wrong in the energy sector. Here is the number of energy industry layoffs announced in January.
Energy sector layoffs

Over 37% of announced layoffs were in Texas.
Texas layoffs

And it will be some time before we see real reductions in US crude output in spite of oil rig closures. That's because of continuous improvements in oil rig efficiency. More job cuts are coming...
Production
Hours worked by Americans rose 5.1% in the fourth quarter. That's the biggest gain in 16 years.
Hours worked

But what about stagnant wages? Apparently more Americans now feel that their household incomes are on the rise.
US incomes
Expected sales growth for the S&P 500 companies is approaching zero. Part of this trend is the decline in energy and other commodity prices. It is concerning nevertheless.
S&P 500 consensus

Credit Suisse's US home buyer traffic index rose a bit in January – an indication of improving housing demand?
US housing demand
And here is some food for thought - 2 items: 1. Millennials are back to work in the US.
Millenials

2. The history of smoking in the US in a single chart.
Smoking

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