Today let’s start with Japan, where the latest report showed the nation’s current account in better shape than expected.
Furthermore, the Bank of Japan announced it will be buying Japanese equity exchange-traded funds to boost demand for risk assets (imagine what would happen if the Federal Reserve suddenly announced it is buying SPYs?). USDJPY busted through 115 and... … Japan’s equity markets rallied to new post-2007 highs (as the Nikkei broke through 17,000).
And while investors are enjoying this flood of liquidity from the central bank, Japan’s lower wage workers are being left behind. Wage increases in Japan are not keeping up with higher consumption taxes and rising import prices due to the weaker yen — and the yen is weakening further. For those who believe that quantitative easing widens the gap between the wealthy and the poor, this trend could become an extreme example of that.
The Shanghai Composite hit a two-year high because next week China launches the “Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect” programme. It will allow global retail investors to participate in mainland Chinese equities for the first time. This market could continue to rally, if anything purely as a result of reallocation (possibly out of the Hong Kong market).
The Russian ruble bounced from the lows as president Vladimir Putin said that the central bank will “punish speculators” shorting the ruble. As an aside, Putin continues to consolidate the Kremlin’s control of the media.
The Ukrainian currency (hryvnia) comes under pressure again as tensions escalate. According to some, an all-out conflict (the end of the ceasefire) is about to erupt in eastern Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Russia and other high cost oil producers can’t catch a break, as Brent crude once again hovers near multi-year lows. Kuwait's oil minister came out in support of the Saudis, reiterating no cuts in Opec production. Forget the “currency wars” — here we have an all-out “oil market war”.
In the Eurozone, we continue to see Italy unable to shake the latest recession, as industrial production contracts.
And Greece has been stuck in a deflationary environment for some 20 months now.
Speaking of industrial production, here is how major economies compare on that basis since 2000.
And in another global comparison of major economies, below is the October Markit Purchasing Managers Index comparison (less than 50 signals contraction):
The US has experienced an amazing shift in investor sentiment over the past couple of weeks. Here is a great quote from Michael Block of Rhino Trading Partners:
Speculative accounts are heavily long the US dollar against multiple currencies (mostly EUR). It’s hard to argue with the fundamentals of this positioning, but this is quickly becoming a crowded trade.
In credit-land the supply/demand imbalances in leveraged loans we’ve seen in recent months have stabilised as fund flows improved and supply declined.
Securitised products remain a shadow of what we witnessed during the bubble years. Gone are collateralized debt obligations. Collateralized loan obligations are going strong, although the future remains uncertain due to Credit Risk Retention rules. Asset-backed securities and commercial mortgage-backed securities are still at the levels from a decade or more ago.
US student debt seems to be impairing younger people’s ability to save.
According to the Wall Street Journal, in spite of the national savings rate increase during and after the recession, the millennials have recently stopped saving.
The commodities complex continues to weaken — here is the CRB BLS Spot Commodity Index. Energy prices will need to stabilise before these declines stop.
Now some food for thought (a three-course meal):
1. Happiness vs. income in the US: is there a relationship?
2. The bigger the government, the lower the growth? Or does slower growth result in more government spending?
3. Finally, as Grant Williams would say, this is one of those things that makes you go hmmm… Here is a New York Times article from 1924 talking about Adolf Hitler being released from prison — "no longer to be feared".
Disclosure: To subscribe to the Daily Shot letter by e-mail please enter your e-mail address here: Subscribe to the Daily Shot