Let's start tonight with further evidence of disinflationary pressures in Asia. The PPI reports from South Korea and India both point to falling wholesale prices. In many cases, this could act as stimulus and improve corporate margins. But one must watch for signs of deflation hitting property markets and spilling over into the consumer economy and creating disincentives to spend.
China housing prices fell over 5% on a year-over-year basis. This cycle is showing a sharper correction than the previous one. A number of analysts continue to insist that once the correction is steep enough, buyers will show up. Perhaps. Right now this is a major drag on Chinese economy and the greatest threat to the stability of the nation's private sector credit markets.
The 10-year Japanese government bond yields more than doubled over the past month. One of the explanations is that the government pension fund (GPIF) is rolling out of bonds and into equities. Also major Japanese insurance firms have been shifting out of JGBs into corporate debt.
Staying with Japan for a moment, the nation's unemployment rate continues to decline. Part of the reason is labor shortages resulting from rapidly ageing population and very little immigration. It is also in part the result of "labour warehousing" with less productive employees remaining on corporate payrolls as layoffs remain taboo for many firms. That tradition is holding back wage growth.
Now a couple items on the situation in Greece.
1. Where did all the bailout funds (€227 billion) go? Here is the breakdown.
2. Many continue to encourage Greece to move toward Grexit. Don't. Imagine a nation that depends on imports, has limited export capabilities, has no external credit or access to hard currency, has no foreign reserves to defend the new drachma, has no way to pay pension recipients except in worthless currency, can't purchase sufficient amounts of food and fuel, etc. It's a humanitarian disaster.
Related to the above here is one of the reasons tax collection remains problematic in some southern European nations – a massive underground economy. It's interesting to see South Korea in the top three.
The Eurozone's overall trade surplus figures came in significantly above expectations, hitting record levels. A softer euro is starting to help.
Yesterday I talked about the skills gap in the US visible in the Beveridge curve. Here is the same plot for France. The unemployment rate is horrible, yet job openings have been relatively elevated. Looks like some serous structural issues in the nation's labour markets.
UK lending rates have fallen sharply recently. The combination of this and lower fuel costs should keep the economy humming.
Ukraine continues sliding into a full blown depression as the latest retail sales report shows commerce collapsing faster than what we saw during the Great Recession.
Israel's economy surprised to the upside, as the Q4 GDP growth come in at 7.2% (versus 3.3% expected). This is the fastest pace of growth since 2007. Some of this is the economic activity catching up from the depressed Q3 levels that were impacted by the Gaza war. The economy was also helped by weaker shekel – ironically also as a result of the the Gaza war.
Now we have an expanded food for thought section...
1. In the financial services sector, talent demand is shifting from the sell-side to the buy-side. According to the FT, asset managers are set to be paid more than investment bankers.
2. A BIS paper suggests that productivity growth is negatively correlated to employment growth in the financial sector. Shouldn't "financial intermediation" improve efficiency by quickly providing capital where it is needed?
3. According to RBS, "this is shaping up to be Italy’s worst century for a while".
4. Here are the top rated nations for post-secondary education. Apparently that doesn't always translate into stronger economies.
5. There is more evidence for widening US political polarisation. Here we see it in the diverging presidential approval.
6. While the chart below is a bit dated, it shows that US colleges have been hiring more "contingent faculty" – part-time (adjunct) and full-time non-tenure track.
Keep in mind that adjunct faculty are often paid about $2,000-$3,000 per course – about minimum wage (or below) for those who take their job seriously. At the same time, tuition costs have spiked.
So where is all the money going?
Expensive administration as well as fancy facilities to attract more students. And the federal government supports this via unlimited cheap student loans.