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Markets Jolted By Downing Of Russian Jet

Published 11/25/2015, 07:55 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

We begin with the market reaction to the downing of a Russian fighter jet by Turkey as tensions escalated on Tuesday.
The lira fell and Turkish bond yields rose (first chart below shows the dollar rising vs. the lira).
USD/TRY Chart

Source: Investing.com
Turkey 10-year Chart

Source: Investing.com

The Turkish stock market (via BIST 100) sold off sharply.
Turkish stock market

Source: Investing.com

Crude oil rallied 3% while US gasoline futures shot up 6%.
US gasoline futures

Source: Investing.com

Many speculative accounts have been short energy and the increased geopolitical risks forced some short-covering. However, given the supply overhang, it will take significantly more uncertainty to create a longer-lasting rally.
Ironically, the Russian ruble rallied on the back of stronger energy prices.

Gold prices rose but surprisingly platinum continued to fall. Given all the negative sentiment, this may be an opportunity for commodities to begin stabilising as hot money covers short positions.
Platinum prices

Source: ‏barchart

Line break Turning to Germany, here are the latest economic reports:

Export growth slowed sharply creating a drag on the GDP, which was not entirely unexpected.

Germany export growth slows

Source: @fastFT

Notwithstanding this weakness in exports and in spite of the Paris tragedy, German business sentiment (Ifo) improved more than expected.
Germany's IFO survey

Source: @HolgerSandte

Moreover, German services sector sentiment hit the highest level on record.

Business Climate


Source: Ifo

Another tailwind for growth is the government consumption which is growing at the highest rate since Q1 2009 -- in part as a result of the new spending related to refugees. Fiscal stimulus in Germany -- who would have thought?
Germany government spending

Source: Deutsche Bank (DE:DBKGn)
Line break Now on to China where the data continues to show slowing industrial and construction activity. For instance, cement prices are still declining.
China cement prices

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Source: Macquarie

China housing starts slow.
China housing starts


Source: Macquarie

Separately, India's trade deficit with China has been increasing significantly. India's rapidly growing middle class is buying more stuff from China.
India-China trade gap


Source: @pdacosta, WSJ
Line break Investors have been pulling out of EM debt funds as US rates (and rate expectations) increased. Is this a contrarian investment opportunity?
Emerging Market outflows


Source: UBS


Line break As a number of African nations tighten interest rates, Nigeria's central bank chose to cut rates instead.
Nigeria cuts rates

Source: Tradingeconomics.com, Central Bank of Nigeria

Will this create further pressure on the dollar peg? The nation's FX reserves have declined substantially over the past few years.
Nigeria FX reserves

Source: Tradingeconomics.com, Central Bank of Nigeria

Line break N:BHP and N:VALE are going to pay heavily for the mining disaster in Brazil.
The Guardian said: A huge brown plume of mud and mining waste spread out along the coast of the Brazilian state of Espírito Santo on Monday, a little over two weeks after the collapse of a dam at an iron ore mine. According to projections from Brazil’s environment ministry, the tide is expected to spread along 5.5-mile (9km) stretch of the coastline, threatening the Comboios nature reserve, one of the only regular nesting sites for the endangered leatherback turtle.

BHP shares were up on Tuesday, but here is the 5-year chart.

BHP shares: 5-year chart


Source: Google
Line break Back in the United States the Conference Board consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level of the year on job concerns. Even with improving labor market indicators Americans remain jittery about job security.
US Consumer confidence

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Source: Investing.com

In spite of the upward revision in the Q3 GDP, velocity of money remains at lowest level in recent history. Credit expansion has generated a great deal of cash in the system but all this liquidity is not resulting in stronger GDP growth.
US Velocity of money
Home prices in the US continue to rise, with increases now accelerating. How is this possible when wage growth has been fairly tepid?
US home prices
A big part of the reason is the easing of credit conditions.
US easing credit conditions

Source: HousingRisk.org, h/t Ira

In fixed income, we see money market rates rising sharply as the December rate hike is being priced in. The 3-month LIBOR and treasury bill rates are shown below.
3-Month LIBOR
3-Month T-Bill

Source: @MktOutperform

The futures-implied probability of December liftoff is now at 74%. The markets seem to be ready.
Probability of US rate hike

Source: @business

Moreover, the treasury curve continues to flatten as the market prices in longer-term growth and inflation rates are materially below historical averages.
US Treasury yield flattens


Note that the Fed is alone in this tightening endeavor as the monetary policy diverges from other major central banks.
Monetary policy divergence

Source: @auaurelija
Line break Finally, let's take a look at some trends in the equity markets. The outperformance of S&P 500 vs. European equities (STOXX Europe 600) has been dramatic. Is it sustainable?
SP500 vs Stoxx Europe 699

Source: Ycharts.com

Goldman is predicting another flat year in 2016 for the S&P 500.
Goldman forecast

Source: Goldman Sachs (N:GS)

Disclosure: Originally published at Saxo Bank TradingFloor.com

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