Get 40% Off
🚨 Volatile Markets? Find Hidden Gems for Serious OutperformanceFind Stocks Now

Daily Shot: Hawk Season In America

Published 02/11/2015, 07:03 AM
Updated 03/19/2019, 04:00 AM

Today let's start with the US where job openings rose above five million, the highest since January 2001.
US job openings

With labour markets continuing to improve, some Federal Reserve officials are talking rate hikes again – in spite of falling inflation and the risks associated with a much stronger dollar.

Reuters

This type of talk makes bond markets nervous, pushing the 10-year treasury yield back above 2%. The fed funds futures market still points to September as the most likely time for the first hike.
US 10-year

This quickly spilled over into emerging markets as some of the vulnerable currencies got hammered. "Taper tantrum" version two could get just as ugly.:

1. The Turkish lira is trading near record lows.
USDTRY

2. The Brazilian real is at multi-year lows.
USDBRL

3. The Nigerian naira now trades at 200/dollar - also a record low.
USDNGN
The UK is feeling the impact of falling energy/commodity prices. The nation's manufacturing production rose 2.4% from last year – stronger than expected.
UK Manufacturing

However, overall industrial production growth decelerated to 0.5% year-over-year – worse than expected. The improvement in manufacturing output did not offset production declines in mining and energy.
Industrial production
The standoff with Greece continues and the euro implied volatility index (the CBOE EuroCurrency Volatility Index) remains elevated as a result.
CBOE *********
Driven by weak demand and falling prices for industrial commodities such as iron ore, the cost of shipping continues to decline. The Baltic Dry index just hit a new low.
Baltic dry index

Here is the April-2015 iron ore futures contract (based on price index in China).
Iron ore
Speaking of China, local government debt continues to rise – now some 31.5% of the GDP. Given the declines in revenues from land sales for municipalities, this could quickly become Beijing's problem. Municipal bailouts on the way?
Local debt

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

Moreover, China's overall debt as percent of GDP is at record levels and growing. This is why the People's Bank of China is loathe to aggressively ease monetary conditions in spite of high real rates and slowing growth.
Growing debt
Switzerland is feeling the impact of a stronger currency as the import price index falls by 3.6% in January. The nation's CPI is now negative 0.5% with deflation setting in.
Swiss imports
Now some food for thought – three items:
1. Rail was a "disruptive technology" at one point. The chart shows indices for shares in canals (red) and railroads (blue) in the early 19th century.
Rail stocks

2. What a contrast: Rio de Janeiro versus Shanghai subway system evolution over the past 20 years .
Subway

3. Jobs created in the alcoholic beverages industry vs. in the soft drink industry.
Alcohol

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.