Today let's start with the US where job openings rose above five million, the highest since January 2001.
With labour markets continuing to improve, some Federal Reserve officials are talking rate hikes again – in spite of falling inflation and the risks associated with a much stronger dollar.
This type of talk makes bond markets nervous, pushing the 10-year treasury yield back above 2%. The fed funds futures market still points to September as the most likely time for the first hike.
This quickly spilled over into emerging markets as some of the vulnerable currencies got hammered. "Taper tantrum" version two could get just as ugly.:
1. The Turkish lira is trading near record lows.
2. The Brazilian real is at multi-year lows.
3. The Nigerian naira now trades at 200/dollar - also a record low.
The UK is feeling the impact of falling energy/commodity prices. The nation's manufacturing production rose 2.4% from last year – stronger than expected.
However, overall industrial production growth decelerated to 0.5% year-over-year – worse than expected. The improvement in manufacturing output did not offset production declines in mining and energy.
The standoff with Greece continues and the euro implied volatility index (the CBOE EuroCurrency Volatility Index) remains elevated as a result.
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Driven by weak demand and falling prices for industrial commodities such as iron ore, the cost of shipping continues to decline. The Baltic Dry index just hit a new low.
Here is the April-2015 iron ore futures contract (based on price index in China).
Speaking of China, local government debt continues to rise – now some 31.5% of the GDP. Given the declines in revenues from land sales for municipalities, this could quickly become Beijing's problem. Municipal bailouts on the way?
Moreover, China's overall debt as percent of GDP is at record levels and growing. This is why the People's Bank of China is loathe to aggressively ease monetary conditions in spite of high real rates and slowing growth.
Switzerland is feeling the impact of a stronger currency as the import price index falls by 3.6% in January. The nation's CPI is now negative 0.5% with deflation setting in.
Now some food for thought – three items:
1. Rail was a "disruptive technology" at one point. The chart shows indices for shares in canals (red) and railroads (blue) in the early 19th century.
2. What a contrast: Rio de Janeiro versus Shanghai subway system evolution over the past 20 years .
3. Jobs created in the alcoholic beverages industry vs. in the soft drink industry.