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Daily Shot: Good Cheer, But Can It Last?

Published 09/09/2015, 07:59 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
  • Italy and Greece speed up Eurozone GDP growth
  • French economy continues to struggle
  • China's trade surplus is deceptively strong
  • Netherlands and Germany heavily exposed to EM
  • Copper and Aluminium lead the commodity revival

Let's start with the Eurozone where the latest GDP report beat economists' estimates.
gdp eurozone
Euro Area GDP Growth Rate
Growth of Euro Area GDP Rates

France continues to struggle to get its economy moving.

Some are suggesting that this ongoing improvement in the euro area is likely to be temporary. The chart below for example points to the divergence between the Eurozone economic surprise index and the cyclical/defensive equity ratio. The divergence is due to some of the corporate sector's exposure to emerging markets.
Europe: Economic surprise index vs cyclical/definsive equities
Below is the breakdown by country showing where the exposure is most pronounced. This is why, for example, the emerging markets' impact on the US will be limited.
Export share of GDP

So far however we haven't seen much of an impact in the Eurozone. The latest data from Germany shows that the nation's trade surplus is at record levels. On a separate note, Germany needs to increase spending because such growing imbalances are not great in the long run.
Germany: Trade Balance 1995-2015

Turning to China, the latest trade data from that nation also shows the trade surplus near record levels.
China trade balance 2003-2015

Here is the same chart annualised - 2015 year-to-date is already almost as large as the whole of 2014.
China trade surplus annualized 2003-2015

Some are questioning the veracity of the nation's export data however. It seems that China Customs may have used the wrong exchange rate (ignoring the devaluation) in determining China's exports.
China: Exchange rate discrepency

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A deeper look suggests an ongoing slowdown across the nation's industrial complex. With the currency remaining relatively strong, and domestic wages rising, China is becoming less competitive.
NYT on China's competitiveness China imports YoY 1996-2015

The sharp decline in imports, especially commodities, has been the main reason for the spike in China's trade surplus. Here is why global commodity producers are hurting.
Share of global commodity imports, by country, 2015

China's equity futures market became the biggest in the world recently. But Beijing's latest efforts to stem the selloff ended up reversing that growth. In futures trading, for every long position there is a short position. And since shorting became "unpatriotic", so went the futures market.
CSI 300 Stock-Index futures volumes 2009-2015

By the way, China's equity markets had quite a rally in the last hour of trading on Tuesday, Shanghai Composite close, below. The "Beijing put" is back. Markets across Asia are rallying this morning.
SSEC Daily

Speaking of Asian markets, the Nikkei 225 gains for the year were wiped out as foreign investors exit Japan. This looks like a good time to get in.
Nikkei daily

One emerging economy in Asia that will be watched closely in the coming months is Indonesia. The currency, the rupiah, is off sharply relative to the dollar, increasing the nation's debt burden. That's because a great deal of private sector debt is denominated in US dollars.

IDR 2010-2015 Indonesia's debt bomb

Back in the United States we see debate continuing about the following divergence. Job openings and the numbers of people voluntarily quitting have been on the rise but wage growth remains subdued. According to many economists this means that wage growth is about to accelerate.
US wage growth vs job growth
Quit rate vs earnings

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But we've heard this story before and still no "wage pressures". So what's going on here? One simple answer is the skills gap. Yes there is pressure in a number of specialised skills markets. But that doesn't necessarily translate into the broader workforce. Here is an example showing two national salary trends.
National salary trend

In the commodities markets we see signs of stabilisation - for now. Here is copper and aluminium for example.
Copper daily
Aluminium daily

Related to the above, the Australian dollar seems to have stabilised as well. The "risk-on" sentiment is back..
AUD/USD daily
Crude oil markets remain highly volatile. One thing that's clear however is that US production will continue to gradually decline at current prices.
Oil rig weekly count
In credit markets we see another redemption streak from leveraged loan funds. Some of this is overdone - driven by the energy markets. Outside of energy and mining, this asset class remains healthy with default rates at multi-year lows.
US loan fund flows
Hedge funds have loaded up on VIX futures. A contrarian in me says this is a bullish sign for the equity markets.
Hedge fund VIX futures positions
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