Daily Market Outlook: September 15, 2014

EURUSD

The Euro holds below last Friday’s fresh recovery high, with positive near-term tone and Friday’s ticks higher, marking positive daily close, after the price broke above bear-trendline, drawn from 1.2987 high. Immediate price action, however, lacked momentum for further upside, despite gap-higher opening, as gains were pared after failure to clear last week’s high, which is ticks away from 05 Sep pivotal 1.2987 high. Friday’s closing level, also 38.2% retracement of 1.2907/1.2977 upleg, offers so far good support, above which fresh attempts towards 1.2987/1.3000 barriers, are expected to commence and confirm near-term recovery resumption on a break higher. Alternatively, loss of 1.2950 handle and broken bear-trendline at 1.2938, now acting as support, as well as 1.2930, bull-trendline, drawn off 1.2858 low / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2858/1.2977 upleg, would soften near-term tone and look for fresh retracement of near-term corrective rally.

Res: 1.2977; 1.2987; 1.3000; 1.3044
Sup: 1.2950; 1.2930; 1.2900; 1.2882




EURJPY

The pair shows the best weekly performance since beginning of March, with psychological 139 barrier being cracked last Friday and weekly close above the latter. Overall strong bullish tone sees scope for eventual clearance of pivotal 139.26, peak of 03 July, with completion of 139.26/135.71 bear-phase, seen as a trigger for further recovery towards psychological 140 barrier, also lower top of 09 June. However, overbought 4 –hour studies, suggest corrective action is going to precede fresh rally, with 138.27/00 zone, expected to ideally contain.

Res: 139.16; 139.26; 139.51; 140.00
Sup: 138.72; 138.45; 138.27; 138.00




GBPUSD

Near-term price action trades in consolidative mode, with 1.62 support holding the downside, while fresh recovery peak at 1.6275, also daily Tenkan-sen line, caps for now. This keeps psychological 1.63 barrier and previous week’s closing level and the upper limit of 08 Sep opening gap, intact. Near-term studies are neutral/positive and unless 1.63 hurdle is taken out, which would allow for stronger recovery and confirm near-term bottom, risk will remain at the downside, as overall picture remains negative and fundamentals are putting additional pressure on Sterling.

Res: 1.6275; 1.6300; 1.6338; 1.6357
Sup: 1.6200; 1.6184; 1.6155; 1.6123





USDJPY

The pair remains positive and closed above 107 handle, with weekly chart showing long green candle, which confirms overall bulls and further attempts towards 108/110, next target zone. Near-term price action holds in narrow-range, consolidative mode, with 107.00 offering initial support, ahead of 106.50. On the upside, 107.50 is initial barrier, ahead of 108.28, Fibonacci 161.8% projection of the upleg from 100.81.

Res: 107.50; 108.00; 108.28; 109.00
Sup: 107.00; 106.50; 106.00; 105.70



AUDUSD

The pair maintains negative tone, with additional pressure seen on weekly gap-lower opening, which brought the price below psychological 0.90 support. Long red previous week’s candle and retracement of 61.8% of 0.8658/0.9503 ascend, supports the notion of further weakness and potential attempts to fully retrace 0.8658/0.9503 rally. Corrective rallies are for now expected in light mode, with session highs at 0.9015, offering initial barrier, ahead of last week’s closing levels at 0.9040, where the next strong resistance lies.

Res: 0.9000; 0.9015; 0.9040; 0.9071
Sup: 0.8980; 0.8950; 0.8923; 0.8900;




AUD/NZD

The pair remains under pressure and continues to head towards the next target at psychological 1.1000 support, after weekly open with gap lower. The third wave lower, which commenced from 1.1223, 11 Sep lower top, could travel to 1.1016, its 100% Fibonacci expansion and 1.0937, 138.2% expansion, with full retracement of 1.0922/1.1293 upleg, expected once the price action established below 1.1000 support. Session high at 1.1075, offers initial barrier, ahead of last Friday’s intraday high and psychological resistance at 1.11.

Res: 1.1075; 1.1100; 1.1150; 1.1200
Sup: 1.1016; 1.1000; 1.0937; 1.0922




XAUUSD

Spot Gold bounces off fresh low at 1225, on near-term corrective rally. Daily and weekly close in red, with last Friday’s close below 1240, former base, keep focus at the downside. Technicals remain negative overall and see scope for eventual attacks at key med term support at 1.1182, for full retracement of 1182/1344 ascend. Initial barriers lay at 1237/40 zone, where rallies should be ideally capped, to prevent extended corrective phase, which would target 1244/1250 resistance zone in extension.

Res: 1237; 1240; 1244; 1250
Sup: 1231; 1225; 1215; 1200