Daily Market Outlook: July 30, 2014

EUR/USD

The Euro cracked psychological 1.34 support after full reversal of 1.3475/1.3992 bull-leg and break below main bull-trendline, drawn off 1.2042, July 2012 low, commenced fresh phase lower, as an extension of pullback from 1.3992, 04 May peak. Higher low of 03 Nov 2013 at 1.3294 is the next significant level, with 1.3247, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2042/1.3992 ascend, seen in extension. Bearish studies favor further bearish action in the near-term, however, overextended daily technicals warn of possible bounce. The pair currently consolidates above fresh low at 1.3399, with hourly 20SMA limiting the upside. Stronger rally through lower platform at 1.3443, would delay immediate bears.

Res: 1.3420; 1.3443; 1.3474; 1.3483
Sup: 1.3399; 1.3350; 1.3294; 1.3247



EUR/JPY

The pair trades within the narrow range of near-term consolidative phase, above 24 July fresh low at 136.35. Overall negative structure favors further downside and eventual completion of multi-month 136.21/143.78 ascend, as the price came ticks away from key support. Break lower to resume pullback from 145.67, 27 Dec 2013 peak, which was congested within short-term rally from 136.21 to 143.78. Near-term corrective rally from 136.62, 28 July higher low, stalled after unsuccessful break above 137 barrier, which was required to open key near-term barriers and breakpoints at 137.23/32, 22/25 July highs and resume recovery rally off 136.35. Subsequent easing from 137.09, today’s high, weakens hourly structure for possible attempt below 136.62 higher low and subsequent return to 136.35, which will confirm an end of near-term consolidative phase. Conversely, holding above 136.62, would signal prolonged near-term consolidation, while the price stays under pivotal 136.23/32 barriers.

Res: 137.00; 137.23; 137.32; 137.48
Sup: 136.74; 136.62; 136.37; 136.21



GBP/USD

Cable maintains negative structure and posts fresh low at 1.6931, meeting its initial target of 50% retracement of 1.6697/1.7189 upleg, after ending 1.6959/1.7000 consolidative phase. Further bears are expected to test 1.6900, round-figure support and 1.6885, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. Consolidative actions should stay under 1.7000 barrier, to keep bears intact, while penetration of 1.7000 level would signal near-term corrective action and put bears on hold.

Res: 1.6959; 1.7000; 1.7025; 1.7050
Sup: 1.6931; 1.6900; 1.6885; 1.6850



USD/JPY

The pair remains supported with near-term price action establishing above psychological 102 barrier. Sustained break above higher, with barrier being reinforced by 200SMA, is required to confirm bullish resumption and expose next pivotal barriers at 102.25/35, 03 July / 18 June lower tops. Positive near-term studies support the notion, with daily conditions improving, as indicators broke in the positive territory. Hesitation ahead of 102.25/35 hurdles could be expected, as near-term studies approach overbought territory.

Res: 102.25; 102.35; 102.78; 103.00
Sup: 102.00; 101.71; 101.60; 101.30



AUD/USD

The pair’s near-term price action remains under pressure, as fresh extension of descend from recovery rejection at 0.9468, establishes below 0.94 barrier. Weak near-term structure supports further weakness for test of daily cloud top at 0.9350 and lower boundaries of short-term range, where strong support lies at 0.9320 higher base. Loss of the latter is expected to accelerate towards larger range floor and platform at 0.92 zone. However, near-term range-trading is expected to remain in play while 0.9320 holds.

Res: 0.9414; 0.9454; 0.9468; 0.9503
Sup: 0.9358; 0.9327; 0.9320; 0.9300



AUD/NZD

The pair holds bullish tone and establishes above key 1.1030 barrier, after completing near-term 1.1012/1.0959 consolidation. Positive near-term studies remain supportive further extension higher on sustained break through 1.1030, which will signal an end of multi-month congestion between 1.0488 and 1.1030 and open fresh bull-leg and retracement of 1.1576/1.0488 descend. Consolidation low at 1.0959, offers solid support, ahead of psychological 1.0900 support and should keep the downside protected. Otherwise, stronger pullback should be anticipated, in case the price slides below 1.09 and 1.0880 Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0619/1.1045 ascend, with notion being supported by overextended daily studies.

Res: 1.1050; 1.1100; 1.1160; 1.1200
Sup: 1.1000; 1.0959; 1.0920; 1.0900


XAU/USD

Spot Gold consolidates around 1300 handle and 61.8% retracement of the rally from 1287, which stalled at 1312, failing to regain pivotal 1315/18 barriers at the first attempt. Increased downside risk would be expected in case of sustained break below 1300 area, as weak hourly studies favor further downside. Also, larger picture’s studies are soft that sees additional pressure at the yellow metal’s near-term price action. Bearish resumption requires renewed attack at recent low / 200SMA at 1286, to confirm lower top and trigger further weakness. Conversely, lift above 1300 support would keep alive fresh attempts at 1312 and 1315/18 barriers.

Res: 1301; 1312; 1315; 1318
Sup: 1296; 1292; 1286; 1280