Monday's Daily Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY

EUR/USD

The euro trades in near-term consolidative phase above last Friday’s pullback low at 1.0800, with the upside capped at 1.0950, Friday’s high and previous base. Daily / weekly close in Doji signals hesitation under recovery highs at 1.1034/50, 18/26 Mar peaks. Range boundaries are reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line (lower) and daily Kijun-sen line (upper), confirming indecision. Also, daily 20SMA, currently at 1.0810, protects the downside, with formation of daily 10/20 SMA’s bullish cross, underpinning the action and marking 1.08 zone as pivotal support. Daily indicators remain in ascending mode and support fresh attempts higher, with break above pivotal 1.0950 barrier, required to confirm and re-focus breakpoints at 1.1034/50, for resumption of recovery phase from 1.0461. Cracked bull-trendline, off 1.0612 low, offers immediate support at 1.0850, ahead of 1.0800, lower breakpoint, below which, further acceleration of pullback from 1.1050 peak, could be expected. Break lower to weaken currently neutral near-term studies and confirm hourly failure swing formation for extension towards 1.0756, 50% of 1.0612/1.1050, possibly to 1.0686, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement.

Res: 1.0900; 1.0950; 1.1000; 1.1034
Sup: 1.0850; 1.0825; 1.0800; 1.0756




EUR/JPY

The pair remains pressure, as near-term studies hold negative tone and fresh easing from last Friday’s corrective rally’s high at 130.40, eyes Friday’s low at 129.01. However, Friday’s Doji could signal extended consolidative action, after 130 barrier, where descending daily 20SMA lies, proved to be strong resistance. Negatively aligned near-term studies keep the downside under pressure, as overall picture remains bearish. Eventual break below 129 handle, to signal further weakness and open 128.65, Fibonacci 61.8% of 126.89/131.49 rally, ahead of 128.30 higher base. On the upside, falling 20SMA caps for now and only close above here would ease downside pressure and signal fresh attempts higher.

Res: 129.85; 130.08; 130.40; 130.85
Sup: 129.20; 129.00; 128.65; 128.35




GBP/USD


Cable remains in near-term congestion after repeated upside rejections mark psychological 1.50 level as strong resistance, with range floor at 1.48 zone, being after pressure, after Friday’s action lower, cracked the support. However, near-term studies remain in neutral mode, while daily chart shows bears in play, with near-term price action being capped by descending 20SMA, currently at 1.4951 and daily / weekly close in red, confirming negative stance. Initial resistance lies at 1.4900, session high / daily Tenkan-sen line, ahead of 1.4951, daily 20SMA, break and close above which is required to improve near-term tone and shift focus towards congestion top and breakpoint at 1.50 zone. Otherwise, close below 1.48 support zone to confirm an end of near-term consolidative phase and open way for further easing, as Friday’s dips marked over 61.8% retracement of 1.4633/1.5160 corrective rally.

Res: 1.4900; 1.4920; 1.4952; 1.4997
Sup: 1.4800; 1.4757; 1.4721; 1.4686




USD/JPY


Near-term price action entered narrow-range, sideways phase, holding between 118.92/119.48 range, following last week’s dip to 118.31, fresh correction low. However, the pair remains under pressure on larger timeframe’s technicals, with Friday’s negative close and the second weekly close in red, confirming negative stance. Daily Ichimoku cloud top, along with cracked Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 116.86/122.01 rally, offers initial support at 118.80, with fresh weakness through last week’s low at 118.31, expected to open daily cloud top at 118.18 and Fibonacci 76.4% level at 118.07, for possible full retracement of 116.86/122.01 rally. Conversely, bounce through 119.85, daily 10SMA / Tenkan-sen, is required to ease immediate downside pressure, while close above daily 20SMA, currently at 120.34, would shift focus higher, for stronger corrective rally.

Res: 119.48; 119.75; 120.09; 120.34
Sup: 118.92; 118.80; 118.61; 118.18




AUD/USD

The pair remains under pressure and extends weakness in Asia, following Friday’s close in long red candle and today’s break below daily 20SMA at 0.7733. Bearish near-term studies support the notion, as the price attempts at psychological 0.77 support, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.7558/0.7936 corrective rally, close below which, to open way towards 0.7610/0.7589 higher lows and focus key support at 0.7558, low of 11 Mar. session high at 0.7745 offers initial resistance, ahead of breakpoint at 0.78 zone, former low of 26Mar and hourly lower platform of 27 Mar. Only close above here to sideline immediate downside risk and open way for stronger corrective action.

Res: 0.7745; 0.7776; 0.7800; 0.7833
Sup: 0.7700; 0.7660; 0.7648; 0.7610




AUD/NZD

The cross returns to bearish mode, following last Friday’s close in long red candle and repeated negative weekly close. Renewed weakness comes ticks away from fresh low at 1.0216, marking lower platform at 1.0330 zone and fresh attempts lower, with parity level coming in short-term focus. Former consolidation lows 1.0270 zone, offer initial resistance, with extend upside attempts expected to hold below pivotal 1.0330 lower platform.

Res: 1.0270; 1.0300; 1.0330; 1.0351
Sup: 1.0216; 1.0200; 1.0150; 1.0100




XAU/USD

Spot Gold continues to move lower, on near-term corrective easing off fresh high at 1219, posted last week, with last Friday’s close in red and below psychological 1200 support, signaling deeper correction, before fresh bulls return to play. Pullback approaches 1190 support, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1142/1219 rally, ahead of higher base at 1185 and daily 10/20SMA’s bull cross at 1178, above which reversal should ideally occur, to keep the upside in focus. Weekly positive close supports the notion for renewed attempts at 1219 and key 1223, 02 Mar lower top and 50% of 1307/1142 descend. Only close below 1178, daily 20SMA, would neutralize upside attempts and trigger further retracement of 1142/1219 rally.

Res: 1195; 1200; 1205; 1209
Sup: 1185; 1181; 1178; 1172