Daily Market Outlook: December 16, 2014

EURUSD

The Euro trades within narrow range and remains capped under 1.25 barrier, lacking momentum for final push higher, despite leaving a series of higher lows in past few sessions. Near-term studies are positively aligned and keep focus at the upside, with yesterday’s negative close signaling further hesitation on approach to pivotal 1.2500/30 barriers. Daily 20SMA / Kijun-sen line, currently at 1.2420 zone, offer initial support, keeping breakpoint at 1.2460 higher base and 50% retracement of 1.2244/1.2493 rally, protected for now. Lift above 1.2500/30 barrier, as well as daily 55SMA at 1.2540, is required to open break point at 1.2597, 19 Nov high and enter corrective phase of larger descend from 1.3992, 08 May peak, on a break higher.

Res: 1.2476; 1.2493; 1.2505; 1.2530
Sup: 1.2420; 1.2400; 1.2360; 1.2340




EURJPY

The cross came under pressure after failure to clear 148 resistance zone, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line and accelerated lower, leaving lower top at 148.22. Yesterday’s extension below 146.41, previous low, signals start of the third wave of pullback from 149.76 peak, with yesterday’s bearish Outside Day, supporting the notion. The price probes below 146.17, daily Kijun-sen line, with close below here, to further weaken the structure for test of breakpoints 145.67/57, 27 Dec 2013 previous peak / 24 Nov former correction low. Loss of the latter to confirm an end of short-term 145.57/149.76 consolidation and enter corrective phase of 134.12/149.76 ascend.

Res: 146.41; 146.80; 147.15; 147.88
Sup: 145.67; 145.57; 145.00; 144.68




GBPUSD

Cable accelerated lower yesterday, after repeated failure at 1.5755/61 barriers were capped by daily Kijun-sen line. Fresh weakness erased over 61.8% of 1.5539/1.5755 rally, on a probe below daily Tenkan-sen line and dip to 1.5600, round-figure support. Near-term studies weakened and see increased risk of retesting short-term range floor at 1.5539, fresh 15-month low, posted on 08 Dec. This may also signal bearish resumption of larger downtrend, on violation of 1.5539 handle, as overall picture remains bearish. However, extension of current one-month long consolidative phase, could be expected in case of failure to break below 1.5539 handle. Alternatively, renewed attempts at pivotal barriers lay at 1.5755/61, would bring near-term bulls back to play.

Res: 1.5675; 1.5690; 1.5745; 1.5755
Sup: 1.5624; 1.5600; 1.5583; 1.5539



USDJPY

The pair closed in red yesterday, signaling bearish resumption and break below near-term congestion, limited by daily Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. Today’s acceleration and probe below previous low of 27 Nov and pivotal support at 117.22, requires close below the latter, to confirm further correction of larger 105.18/121.83 ascend, signaled by last week’s bearish Engulfing pattern. Fresh acceleration lower to open next target at 115.43, 17 Nov low / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 105.18/121.83 rally. Initial resistances lay at 117.75/118, while 119 zone, previous hourly range top, is expected to cap stronger corrective attempts.

Res: 117.75; 118.00; 118.32; 118.60
Sup: 117.00; 116.50; 116.00; 115.43



AUDUSD


The pair trades in near-term consolidative phase, off psychological 0.8200 support, which was cracked but contained yesterday / today’s attempts lower. Overall negative picture and yesterday’s close in red, see current action as hesitation at strong support, with limited upside action expected to hold below 0.83 resistance zone, last Friday’s high / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.8373/0.8198 descend / daily Tenkan-sen line, as oversold daily studies still don’t show signals of reversal. Low of May 2010 at 0.8051, along with psychological 0.8000 support, mark next targets and strong supports, while only close above 0.8300 barrier would have more significant impact on near-term bears.

Res: 0.8265; 0.8300; 0.8340; 0.8373
Sup: 0.8200; 0.8150; 0.8100; 0.8051




AUDNZD

The pair remains negative overall, with near-term price action trading in narrow-range consolidative phase, off fresh low at 1.0534, posted on 11Dec. Yesterday’s close in red, signals limited upside attempts, as long red candle of the previous week suggests resumption of larger downtrend, for test of critical supports at 1.0488/32, 27 Jan 2014 low / Dec 2005 low. Initial resistances lay at 1.0660, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0864/1.0533 descend, ahead of 1.0700, round figure and extended rallies to be ideally capped at 1.0740, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement.

Res: 1.0646; 1.0660; 1.0700; 1.0740
Sup: 1.0594; 1.0561; 1.0534; 1.0500




XAUUSD

Spot gold turned bearish in the near-term, after yesterday’s acceleration lower broke and close below psychological 1200 support, resulting in long red candle, which gives strong bearish signal. Dips were contained by daily Kijun-sen line at 1190, just ahead of 1186 higher base, with subsequent consolidative/corrective action, to be ideally capped at 1208, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1238/1190 descend, before fresh attempt lower. Break below 1190/86 handles, to open 1175 higher low of 19 Nov and 1172, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1131/1238 ascend. Upside break point lies at 1212, broken bull-trendline and daily Tenkan-sen line / cloud top and break here is required to neutralize near-term bears.

Res: 1200; 1208; 1212; 1219
Sup: 1190; 1186; 1175; 1172