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Daily Insight: Kiwi Edging Lower, Nikkei Breaks To A High

Published 06/19/2014, 04:17 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM


ASIA ROUNDUP:

FX Majors & Crosses

  • NZD QDP fall short at 1% vs 1.2% expected which saw the Kiwi Dollar edge lower from yesterday's highs. However the number itsef is still string and bias remains bullish for Kiwi pairs due to capital inflows.
  • Market consensus is for NZ to hike rates again in July
  • BoJ member Morimoto: "Inflation expectations likely to strengthen"
  • Australian exporters forecast higher export prices, according to Citi Group
  • AUS200 posts biggest day gain in 2 months folllowing positive equity sentiment from US.
  • {{178|Nikkei 225}} breaks to a 15-week high which could bring upwards pressure in USD/JPY


UP NEXT:

Economic Events

  • SNB rate decision is likely to remain at -0.25%, but the press conference should provide extra volatility across CHF pairs. With USD/CHF looking heavy below 0.90 this is a pair to consider, but also AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF could provide bullish opportunities as money continues to support AUD and NZD.
  • GBP Retail sales is forecast to be down and at a 4-month low, so if we see sales up (over 0%) we could see GBP/USD pop above 1.70. Poor sales could see GBPUSD retrace towards 1.697

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

AUD/CHF: Bullish Wedge breakout presents intraday Bull Flag

AUD/CHF

With CHF red news out tonight, any signs of weakness from the Swiss should play into the bullish hands of AUD and NZD.

AUD/CHF has produced a potential bullish flag; in line with the bullish wedge it broke out of yesterdays to target the 0.848 highs.

​ In the event of a retracement (which would invalidate the bullish flag) then bullish setups could be considered above the daily pivot.

NZD/CHF: Symmetrical Triangle targets 0.7865 highs

NZD/CHF

NZD/CHF broke out of a symmetrical triangle to target 0.786, with intraday price action forming a potential swing low above the daily pivot.

If we see a deeper retracement then we may retest the upper trendline of the triangle (around Daily S1) but I would prefer to only consider intraday bullish setups above the daily pivot.

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