Currency Speculators Continue To Cut US Dollar Bullish Bets

US dollar net speculator positions declined last week to +$25.81 billion

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to reduce their overall net bullish positions in the US dollar last week for an eighth straight week. The US dollar bullish bets have now dropped to the lowest level since July 2014.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $25.81 billion as of Tuesday May 19th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$3.30 billion from the $29.11 billion total long position that was registered on May 12th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The latest data puts the US dollar speculative level at the lowest level since July 29th, when net positions equaled $20.24 billion.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar while decreasing weekly bets for the Swiss franc, Mexican peso and the New Zealand dollar.

Notable Changes:

• The euro bets advanced for a 4th week as specs continue to cut back on their net bearish euro positions

• Japanese yen bets rose for a 2nd week as JPY spec positions have gained for five out of last six weeks

• Swiss franc bets dipped after rising for five straight weeks, but still sit at a bullish position of +9,405 contracts

• Canadian dollar bets went higher for a 5th week and turned over into bullish territory as net positions now stand at +4,348 contracts

• Australian dollar bets continued to rise for a 5th week and boosted its bullish position higher (+7,323 contracts)

• New Zealand dollar positions fell for a third week and NZD positions fell back into bearish territory

• Mexican peso bets declined last week and have fallen for four out of the last five weeks

This latest COT data is through Tuesday May 19th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks Data for EuroFX Futures

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks Data for Pound Sterling Futures

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks Data for Yen Futures

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks Data for Franc Futures

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks Data for Canadian Dollar Futures

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks Data for Australian Dollar Futures

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks Data for New Zealand Dollar Futures

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks Data for Mexican Peso Futures

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar. A net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expects that currency to rise versus the dollar.