Currency Speculators Add To US Dollar Bullish Bets

US dollar net speculator positions rebounded last week to +$29.94 billion

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators raised their overall net bullish positions in the US dollar last week after declines in the previous eight straight weeks. The US dollar bullish bets had fallen to the lowest level since July 2014 before last week’s turnaround.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $29.94 billion as of Tuesday May 26th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$4.13 billion from the $25.81 billion total long position that was registered on May 19th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The latest data brings the US dollar speculative level to the highest level since May 5th, when net positions equaled $32.25 billion.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of just the Canadian dollar, while decreasing weekly bets for the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

Notable Changes:

• The euro bets dipped by just under -3,500 contracts last week after gaining for previous four weeks

• British pound sterling bets fell last week after a gain the week before, and remain bearish at -25,539 contracts

• Japanese yen bets fell sharply by over -40,000 contracts after rising the previous two weeks

• Swiss franc bets declined for a 2nd week, although franc bets continue to be in a bullish position of +8,330 contracts

• Canadian dollar bets rose higher for a 6th week and extended its bullish position higher (+7,333 contracts )

• Australian dollar bets fell slightly and declined for the first time in six weeks, although the AUD maintains a bullish speculative position (+6,422 contracts)

• New Zealand dollar positions dropped for a fourth week, and NZD positions fell further into bearish territory (-5,087 contracts)

• Mexican peso bets fell for a 2nd week last week, and remains in bearish territory of over -30,000 contracts

This latest COT data is through Tuesday May 26th, and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar, while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks Data for EuroFX Futures

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks Data for Pound Sterling Futures

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks Data for Yen Futures

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks Data for Franc Futures

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks Data for Canadian Dollar Futures

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks Data for Australian Dollar Futures

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks Data for New Zealand Dollar Futures

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks Data for Mexican Peso Futures

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar: a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.