Chinese manufacturing PMI for November was a mixed bag with the private Caixin PMI strengthening, whereas the official PMI from NBS fell to the lowest level in three years.
The Caixin PMI manufacturing rose to 48.6 (consensus 48.3) from 48.3 in October. It was the second monthly rise. The new orders index, however, slipped a bit to 47.8 from 48.0 but it still above the low in October at 46.4. The order-inventory level improved further as the inventory index fell from 50.2 to 49.0. Hence the Caixin numbers are overall well in line with the story of a tentative bottom in the Chinese industrial sector.
In contrast, the official PMI manufacturing from NBS fell from 49.8 in October to 49.6 in November, which is the lowest level in three years. The details were also poor with the new orders index falling to 49.8 from 50.3. It was lower in September, though, when it hit 49.7. On a positive note, the inventory index fell further and has reached a very low level. Hence, the order-inventory level, while slightly lower in November, is still pointing to some recovery.
When it comes to exports the picture is even more confusing. The NBS PMI export orders index is showing a sharp decline, whereas the Caixin PMI export orders index increased for the second month in a row.
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