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Can Bulls Rally Equity Markets? Watch This Trendline

Published 09/21/2014, 12:26 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

I just wanted to write a quick technical observation. On Friday, the SPX seesawed in the wake of the Scottish Referendum news and triple witching and the index struggled to hold its upside breakout in the face of negative divergences:

SPX Daily
Traders might be advised to watch if the index can hold this uptrend line on the SPX 60-minute chart:
SPX 60-Minute Chart
The bull case is bolstered by the fact that the uptrend remains intact on the DJIA (not shown) and the NASDAQ 100 saw a minor violation but rallied soon thereafter:
NASDAQ 100 60-Minute Chart

On the other hand, the uptrend was violated on the SPX 15 minute chart:

SPX 15-Minute Chart

As for the Russell 2000, there was no uptrend on the 60 minute chart:

RUT 60-Minute Chart

For a different perspective, the uptrend remained intact on the SPX 15 minute point and figure chart:

SPX 15-Minute Point and Figure Chart
The weight of the evidence suggests that the bulls are still in control of the tape - but just barely. Traders should watch how the market behaves on Monday. Can the bulls rally this market, or will the bears wrestle control away from them?

I will write a longer note tomorrow about why the path of least resistance for equities is likely to be down.

Disclosure: Cam Hui is a portfolio manager at Qwest Investment Fund Management Ltd. ("Qwest"). This article is prepared by Mr. Hui as an outside business activity. As such, Qwest does not review or approve materials presented herein. The opinions and any recommendations expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of Qwest.

None of the information or opinions expressed in this blog constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other instrument. Nothing in this article constitutes investment advice and any recommendations that may be contained herein have not been based upon a consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Any purchase or sale activity in any securities or other instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Either Qwest or Mr. Hui may hold or control long or short positions in the securities or instruments mentioned.

Latest comments

Thanks for all the pointers. Could you also share your insight as to WHEN in addition to WHAT your TA tells you about the near future?. . How do you trade based on your analysis and has that been a useful tool for you in the past 3 years?. You know all too well that it takes more than a few nudges to change the course of a stampeding Bull, and with the FED solidly supporting further upside, the best of Technical Analysis does not hold in this market.. A topping process usually takes months before a trend changes and it's useless to try and predict ahead of time when the trend will change.. Staying with the trend and keeping my stop loss points in place was all it took to be rewarded for a long time now.
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