EUR/USD Daily Analysis: Note that we will not be trading tomorrow, November 27th, or Friday as the US banks will be closed for Thanksgiving. Have a good thanksgiving and a good weekend!
The USD continued to lose ground to the Euro yesterday as a plethora of economic data came out – some good, some bad. While you can cherry pick the data to support a bearish USD view, we believe the rally to be driven more by bullish exhaustion than bearish fundamentals at this point. Of course, headwind changes are best seen in hindsight so we will continue to monitor the mood of the market in the context of further fundamental data points.
Technically we remain long-term bearish on EUR/USD under 1.2575 and believe selling there will keep price below 1.26. If a sustained break above 1.2575 is seen then a modest bullish correction toward 1.28 would be the next technical target.
Our Preferred Trades*: Flat before the holiday weekend. Have a good weekend and a good Thanksgiving! See you on Monday.
Yesterday’s EUR/USD SwingPRO Signal Result: Our sell limit was removed via PRO alert before triggered as we reacted to a bullish flag pattern on hourlies.
Today’s SwingPRO Signal: Flat before the holiday and weekend.
*CandlePRO: CandlePRO can be used in conjunction with our daily analysis and “our preferred trades.” For example, if we prefer “going short” or “selling a rally” then we would look for bearish candlestick signals after a rally or near resistance levels. Alternative if we prefer “going long” or “buying a dip” then we would look for bullish candlestick signals on price drops or near support levels.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Nov 26 | 05:00 | JPY Small Business Confidence (NOV) | 47.7 | 47.5 | 47.4 |
| 07:00 | CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (OCT) | 1.29 | 1.39 | ||
| 09:30 | GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q P) | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 09:30 | GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q P) | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | |
| 11:00 | GBP CBI Reported Sales (NOV) | 27 | 28 | 31 | |
| 12:00 | USD MBA Mortgage Applications (NOV 21) | -4.3% | 4.9% | ||
| 13:30 | USD Durable Goods Orders (OCT) | 0.4% | -0.6% | -0.9% | |
| 13:30 | USD Durables Ex Transportation (OCT) | -0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | |
| 13:30 | USD Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 22) | 313K | 288K | 292K | |
| 13:30 | USD Continuing Claims (NOV 15) | 2316K | 2348K | 2333K | |
| 13:30 | USD Personal Income (OCT) | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 13:30 | USD Personal Spending (OCT) | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 13:30 | USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (OCT) | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | |
| 13:30 | USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (OCT) | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 13:30 | USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (OCT) | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 13:30 | USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (OCT) | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | |
| 14:45 | USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (NOV) | 60.8 | 63 | 66.2 | |
| 14:55 | USD U. of Michigan Confidence (NOV F) | 88.8 | 90 | 89.4 | |
| 15:00 | USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (OCT) | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | |
| 15:00 | USD New Home Sales (MoM) (OCT) | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% |