Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Below looks at the government bond ETF TLT over the past 10 years. For the first seven months of this year, TLT rallied strongly. That rally took it to the top of its 10-year rising channel at (1),...

I’ve taken plenty of bond math classes. The best of them was in the summer of 2001 at Lehman Brothers. Lehman Brothers wasn’t going to teach a bad bond math class, not at the firm that...

Bond prices generally move with stock prices over the long term. Or at least that is what any of us have seen over the last 30 years. But it could be just a coincidence that a 30 year bull market in...

The 10-Year Treasury Note’s term premium (an estimate of the extra compensation that the market demands for holding longer rather than shorter maturities) has been moderately negative for most...

To understand the financial markets, you need to understand the hierarchy of asset classes. That hierarchy is as follows:Globally, the stock market is about $69 trillion in size, trading about $191...

You can find any answer you want by comparing the current curve to various points in its history. Over the past 30 trading days, for instance, the curve is more or less unchanged. But comparisons over...

A Market in Transition?The municipal bond market finally slowed down during 3Q2016, as shown in Tables 1 and 2. The muni market cheapened on both a nominal and a relative basis. Why? Some of this...

On Friday, the Wall Street Journal officially ran an obituary for the TED spread proclaiming: “The Ted Spread Is Dead, Baby. The Ted Spread Is Dead.” The article explains: This spread...

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren recently rattled markets when he warned that low-interest rates were increasing the temperature of the U.S. economy, which now runs the risk of overheating. That...

Junk bonds are often viewed as leading indicators for the stock market. Rising junk prices are usually greeted by stocks in a positive way and weak junk prices are often viewed in a concerning...

The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury closed at around 1.68% yesterday, but judging by the haughty commentary surrounding global bond markets you would be forgiven if you thought it was 2.68%. Since...

Leave it to the government to screw things up. As the Zero Economy trudges forward, more and more distortions are rippling through the world of money.You can thank the world’s money maestros....

Many people might have the impression that the top 1 percent of society—those making over $521,411—deal mainly in exotic investments such as derivatives, fine art and rare French...

For those who are willing to see it, there is strong evidence that reasonably persistent seasonal trends exist in the stock market (see here).But what about the bond market? Do seasonal trends exist...