Get 40% Off
🚨 Volatile Markets? Find Hidden Gems for Serious OutperformanceFind Stocks Now

BLS Vs.Gallup Unemployment Rate: Massive Discrepancies

Published 08/16/2015, 02:24 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

The Gallup Daily U.S. Employment , poll estimates unemployment at 6.3% and underemployment at 14.5%.

Gallup cautions: "Because results are not seasonally adjusted, they are not directly comparable to numbers reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which are based on workers 16 and older. Margin of error is ±1 percentage point."

Actually the numbers can be compared. All one has to do is use the BLS non-seasonally adjusted numbers.

Civilian Unemployment Rate, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Gallup estimates the unemployment rate at 6.3% but the BLS says 5.6%. If anything, the BLS number should be higher than Gallup.

Why?

Because Gallup surveys those 18 and older whereas the BLS surveys 16 and older. Given high youth-unemployment, any BLS bias should be higher, not lower.

Underemployment

And please check out the massive difference in underemployment. The BLS says 10.7% while Gallup says 14.5%!

Sampling

Gallup uses a 30-day rolling average, not seasonally adjusted, and samples 30,000 people for their rolling-average numbers.

The Gallup numbers are more believable than the BLS numbers.

Finally, for comparison purposes, the University of Michigan sentiment survey does a one-time sample a mere 500 people on which it allegedly measures spending habits and the economic health of the entire nation.

For my take on sentiment, please see Sentiment as a Measure of Health of the Economy; Sentiment Theory vs. Practice.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.