Talking Points
- GBP/USD Retains Descending Channel Ahead of BoE; March Low (1.6458) on Horizon?
- USD/CAD to Test 1.1000 on Dovish BoC; Lower-High in Place?
- US DOLLAR Remains Overbought; Monthly Opening Range in Focus.
- Remains at risk of a further decline as the descending channel remains in play, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dips back into oversold territory; next key objective is the March low (1.6458).
- Need to see a larger dissent within the Bank of England (BoE) to see a material shift in the near-term outlook for GBP/USD.
- The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd is increasing their net-long exposure on GBP/USD as the ratio climbs to +2.10.
- Appears to have carved a higher-low in August following the failed attempts to close below 1.0820 (61.8% retracement) to 1.0830(61.8% retracement).
- May see a more meaningful run at 1.1000 handle should the Bank of Canada (BoC) retain a relatively dovish tone and call for a prolonged period of interest rate stability.
- Need a bullish break in the RSI to favor a higher-high & resumption of the long-term bullish trend.
USDOLLAR
Index |
Last |
High |
Low |
Daily Change (%) |
Daily Range (% of ATR) |
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index |
10702.33 |
10707.06 |
10651.73 |
0.45 |
196.11% |
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
USDOLLAR
- Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index climbs to a fresh monthly high of 10,706 as ISM Manufacturing climbs to 59.0- highest reading since March 2011.
- Despite the overbought RSI reading, next topside target comes in around 10,710 (23.6% retracement) to 10,716 (38.2% retracement).
- Will continue to wait for a bearish RSI break for a more meaningful move back towards former resistance around 10,555 (50.0% retracement) to 10,561 (100% expansion).
Release |
GMT |
Expected |
Actual |
Markit Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG F) |
13:45 |
58.0 |
57.9 |
ISM Manufacturing (AUG) |
14:00 |
57.0 |
59.0 |
ISM Prices Paid (AUG) |
14:00 |
58.5 |
58.0 |
Construction Spending (MoM) (JUL) |
14:00 |
1.0% |
1.8 |
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (SEP) |
14:00 |
45.5 |
45.2 |
--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst