Australia 200 for Monday, April 27, 2015
The Australian 200 index is once again enjoying solid support from the 5800 level which provided ample support throughout last week. This is allowing the index time and space to rally and return to near the 6000 level which is where it finished near at the end of last week. A few weeks ago the Australian 200 index showed some positive signs and moved well towards the resistance at 6000 before finishing the week strongly lower. It now looks poised again to test the key 6000 level and if this level is broken, it is reasonable to expect a large shift towards bullish sentiment and potentially the index could really take off – it seems as if everyone is just waiting for it to happen. Several weeks ago the Australia 200 index pushed higher to a multi-year high to just above the key resistance level at 6000, before easing lower throughout the last couple of weeks to below 5900. It is receiving ongoing support at 5800, which is helping its latest push towards 6000. The key 6000 level remains firm and a significant obstacle and the index and markets are firmly fixed on it.
Back in mid-March the ASX200 index found some support at the key 5800 level which has propped it up and allowed it to rally a little and move higher, and of course it will be hoping to receive the same again. Back in early March the ASX200 index reversed from its highs near 6000 and started to establish a new medium term down trend before rallying higher a couple of weeks ago. It enjoyed a strong move higher throughout February moving from below the key 5800 level up to another multi-year high near 6000, where it met stiff resistance. At the beginning of February it spent a week or so battling with resistance at the key 5800 level which repeatedly fended off the index, resulting in it easing back a little. This level has resumed its key role and is currently having an impact on the index.
Throughout the second half of January the Australian 200 index did very well and surged higher to move back above the key 5400 level and push on through to the new highs. At this time, the resistance at 5500 stood tall and fended off all advances, however this now been broken strongly through. Throughout most of November and December, the Australia 200 Index fell steadily lower down towards support around 5150 and two month lows before rallying back above 5400 again. Over the last few weeks the Australia 200 index has struggled with resistance at 5400 which has forced it lower time and time again. The 5400 level has been a major player for the last 12 months and the index must get back above this level to encourage more buying and bullish sentiment.
Australia’s core consumer prices matched economists’ forecasts in the first three months of the year, providing scope for the central bank to reduce interest rates. The trimmed mean gauge of core prices advanced 0.6 percent from the previous quarter, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney Wednesday, in line with the median forecast. The consumer price index rose 0.2 percent from the prior period, compared with economists’ forecasts for a 0.1 percent increase. “Australia’s CPI figures aren’t as weak as we expected, but they are unlikely to prompt the RBA to abandon its plans to cut interest rates in early May,” said Paul Dales, chief Australia and New Zealand economist at Capital Economics. “It seems that the boost to inflation from the lower exchange rate is offsetting the drag from weak wage growth and the indirect effects from lower petrol and utility prices.”
Australia 200 April 27 at 01:15 GMT 5962 H: 5970 L: 5861
Australia 200 Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 5800 | 5400 | 5150 | 6000 | — | — |
During the hours of the Asian trading session on Monday, the Australia 200 Index will be looking to make another run at the long term resistance level at 6000 after finishing last week so strongly.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 5800, 5400 and 5150.
• Above: 6000.
Economic Releases
- 23:50 (Sun) JP Large Retailers Sales (Mar)
- 23:50 (Sun) JP Retail Sales (Mar)
- 10:00 UK CBI Industrial Trends (Apr)