AUD/USD Near Term Picture Remains Unchanged

EUR/USD

The Euro resumes lower and establishes fresh direction lower after breaking below near-term congestion. The second consecutive close in red, confirms near-term bears are back to play, as extension of reversal from 1.2884 peak retraced over 61.8% of 1.2499/1.2887 corrective rally. Immediate target lay at 1.2622 and 1.2603, higher lows of 15/10 Oct respectively, with break lower expected to re-focus key near-term support at 1.2499, low of 03 Oct. Descending daily 20SMA, offers initial resistance at 1.2690, ahead of 1.2700/30, former congestion lows and broken bull-trendline off 1.2499, below which corrective rallies should be capped.

Res: 1.2690; 1.2700; 1.2730; 1.2758
Sup: 1.2622; 1.2603; 1.2582; 1.2541




EUR/JPY

Near-term structure remains weak, as the pair continues to move lower off 137 lower platform. Fresh extension to 134.41 so far, marks over 50% retracement of 134.12/137.00 rally, with prospect for further easing, as yesterday’s close in red confirms near-term bears. Extension below 135 handle would signal possible full retracement of 134.12/137 rally, as overall picture remains bearish. Corrective attempts are seen limited for now, with initial resistance at 136.18, hourly lower platform / 50% of descend seen so far, ahead of 136.78 lower top. Only sustained break above 137 barrier, reinforced by descending daily 20SMA, would neutralize near-term bears.

Res: 136.00; 136.18; 136.50; 136.78
Sup: 135.41; 135.22; 135.00; 134.80




GBP/USD

Cable accelerated lower and extended pullback from 1.6182, to approach psychological 1.60 support. This establishes fresh bears on 4-hour chart studies for further weakness and retracement of 1.5873/1.6182 ascend, as overall bears remain intact, after descending daily 20SMA limited upside attempts, keeping pivotal 1.6200/25 barrier intact. However, break and daily close below daily Tenkan-sen line at 1.6028 and psychological 1.6000 support, is required to confirm bearish resumption, which will be targeting 1.5991, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5873/1.6182 and 1.5939, higher low of 16 Oct, in extension, with full reversal of 1.2873/1.6182 ascend, expected to come on near-term agenda. Yesterday’s intraday high and consolidation top at 1.6076, offers initial resistance, ahead of 1.6100 and 1.6130 lower top, below which corrective rallies should ideally reverse. Alternative scenario requires break and close above 1.6225 breakpoint, to bring bulls back in play.

Res: 1.6076; 1.6100; 1.6130; 1.6182
Sup: 1.6035; 1.6010; 1.5991; 1.5939



USD/JPY

The pair stabilizes above 107 support, as fresh attempts higher nearly fully retraced 170.38/106.23 corrective pullback, with daily 20SMA at 107.35, being tested so far. Near-term studies are turning bullish, which supports further action higher, however, weak daily studies see risk of repeated rejection at 107.50/63 breakpoint, lower top of 15 Oct / 50% of 109.89/105.18 descend / daily Kijun-sen line, which would signal prolonged consolidation above 106.23, before fresh push lower. Conversely, clear break above 107.50/60 hurdles, to confirm bullish resumption of recovery rally from 105.18, 15 Oct low

Res: 107.35; 107.50; 107.63; 108.00
Sup: 106.77; 106.60; 106.23; 106.11



AUD/USD

Near-term picture remains unchanged, as price action continues to move in a range trading. Near-term studies remain neutral and require trigger to break either side of the range, to establish fresh direction, with repeated Doji confirming indecision. However, overall bearish structure, favors resumption of larger downtrend from 0.9400 lower top, on completion of short-term consolidative phase. Only clear break above 0.89 breakpoint and range top would put larger bears on hold, for stronger correction of larger 0.94000/0.8641 descend.

Res: 0.8800; 0.8813; 0.8836; 0.8858
Sup: 0.8747; 0.8731; 0.8700; 0.8684



AUD/NZD

Kiwi lost ground against Aussie dollar and fresh acceleration higher eventually broke above pivotal barriers at 1.1100 and 1.1146 lower platform, to retrace so far over 61.8% of 1.1276/1.0979 descend. Fresh bulls have established on near-term studies, sidelining immediate downside risk. Higher base is forming at 1.0980 zone, where false break below psychological 1.10 support, was contained, with 100SMA reinforcing support. Daily close above 1.1122, daily 20SMA, to confirm bulls fully in play for attempt towards psychological 1.1200 barrier and possible extension towards key short-term resistances at 1.1279/93.

Res: 1.1200; 1.1243; 1.1279; 1.1293
Sup: 1.1138; 1.1100; 1.1080; 1.1051





XAU/USD

Spot Gold trades in near-term corrective phase off fresh high at 1255, with temporary support being found at 1240, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1231/1254 ascend, for now. Weak near-term studies see risk of further easing, as near-term base hasn’t been established at 1240 yet. Further weakness will look for the next strong support at 1237, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement / daily Tenkan-sen line, loss of which to confirm near-term top and bring bears back to play, for test of 1231, 17 Oct higher low. Alternatively, sustained bounce from 1240, would extend fresh gains towards 1249, hourly lower platform, initially and shift focus towards fresh peak at 1255, posted on 21 Oct.

Res: 1244; 1249; 1255; 1269
Sup: 1240; 1237; 1231; 1227