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Trading The AU Retail Sales Release, September 2, 2015

Published 08/31/2015, 03:25 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

AU Retail Sales release today is usually a pretty strong tradable release but as stated with previous releases out of Australia, I would not be looking to hold LONG AUD trades for long-term as recent action out of China and drop in commodities have pretty much capped any potential gains in the currency.

Here’s the forecast:

9:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.7%
DEVIATION: 0.5% (BUY AUD 0.9% / SELL AUD -0.1%)

The Trade Plan

The deviation that we are looking for the Australian Retail Sales m/m release is for a minimum of 0.5%. If we get a 0.9% (or better) we´ll look to buy and if we get -0.1% (or worse), we’d look to SELL. There is a high probability of market movement of over 50 pips in the next 2 hours if we get our deviation.

I’d recommend to trade the Recommended Pairs above as they are based on my CSM and should provide you with an edge by pairing up the best currencies to trade in the event of a good/bad news. Of course, you can also trade the default pair: AUD/USD.

Outlook Score

Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.

Definition

“Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders payclose attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.”

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