Low Australia Q1 CPI renews speculation of RBA rate cuts; NZD firms on RBNZ OCR hold
Economic Data
(NZ) RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND (RBNZ) LEAVES OFFICIAL CASH RATE UNCHANGED AT 2.50% (AS EXPECTED)
(AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 CONSUMER PRICES (CPI) Q/Q: 0.4% V 0.7%E; Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.8%E; CPI TRIMMED MEAN Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.5%E (lowest reading in nine quarters); Y/Y: 2.2% V 2.4%E
(AU) AUSTRALIA MAR DEWR INTERNET SKILLED VACANCIES M/M: +0.1% V -0.5% PRIOR (1st rise in 12 months)
(JP) JAPAN MAR CORP SERVICE PRICE INDEX Y/Y: -0.2% V -0.3%E
(VN) VIETNAM APR CPI Y/Y: 6.6% V 7.0%E
Markets Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)
Nikkei225 +1.3%
S&P/ASX +1.6%
Kospi +0.9%
Shanghai Composite +0.7%
Hang Seng +1.1%
Jun S&P500 +0.2% at 1,576
Jun gold +1.0% at $1,423/oz
Jun Crude Oil +0.4% at $89.49/brl
Observations/Insights
Asian bourses were in positive territory tracking strong gains in the US following a modest rebound in US new home sales and weak German PMIs that boosted expectations of an ECB easing. US markets also recovered quickly following an erroneous tweet from a hacked AP account claiming explosions had occurred at the White House. Nikkei225 opened sharply higher tracking weak Yan, advancing at one point to a new five-year high.
Australian Q1 CPI data advanced to 0.4%, much less than the 0.7% expected. The RBA's favored trimmed mean inflation eased to 0.3% against the 0.5% expected, the lowest reading in nine quarters. Fixed income markets are now pricing in a near split for an RBA cut against a hold at the upcoming May meeting. Treasurer Swan also later reiterated that the high AUD is weighing on prices and affecting government revenues, and that the government fiscal policy allows the RBA room to move over time.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced its decision to leave its cash rate (OCR) unchanged at a record low of 2.5%, remaining on hold since Mar 2011. RBNZ governor Wheeler's most pronounced statement shif pointed to New Zealand economy picking up - last time he said economy was still uneven. Wheeler did express some concerns that housing inflation is high in some regions, but also reiterated that he expects to keep OCR unchanged through 2013.
Currencies/Fixed Income/Commodities
GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall by 7.5 tons to 1,097.2 ton (lowest since 1,096.6 in Oct of 2009)
(US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES CRUDE: -845K (2nd consecutive draw) V +1ME; GASOLINE: -2.70M V -0.5ME; DISTILLATE: +0.67M V +0.5ME; UTILIZATION: 85.7% V 87.2% W/W
(CN) China Ministry of Finance (MOF) sells 10-yr bonds, avg yield 3.4207%
Much of the action in the currency markets centered around NZD and AUD pairs, the former rising and holding the gains after the RBNZ meeting and the latter selling on weak Australia CPI. NZD/USD traded up to $0.8445, AUD/USD fell about 40 pips around $1.0230, while the AUD/NZD cross saw a drop of about 70 pips, coming within 10 pips of multi-month lows around NZ$1.2140. Elsewhere, USD/JPY traded sideways in a 50pip range around ¥99.50, EUR/USD oscillated around $1.30, and Swiss franc remained offered across the board, with 3-week highs in USD/CHF at 0.9460 and 5-week highs in EUR/CHF near 1.26.
Speakers/Political/In the Papers
(CN) China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC): China 2012 banking industry bad loans CNY1.07T - Chinese press
(CN) Shanghai tightens policy on banks' investment products - US financial press
(CN) State Regulatory Commission director Jiang: calls on State owned Enterprises (SOEs) to post 10% profit growth and more than 8% value added performance in 2013 - Chinese press
(CN) China to conduct a bond probe to help ease LGFV (Local Government Financing Vehicle) debt risks - Chinese press
(CN) China Hangzhou City may implement a property tax trial - Chinese press
(CN) China's Shandong Province confirmed its first case of the H7N9 virus as bird flu spreads to a new area - Shanghai Daily
(CN) Overseas investors said to be increasingly using RQFII program in Hong Kong to short A-share ETFs - Chinese press
(JP) Japan Finance Minister Aso: BOJ easing isn't aimed at exchange rates
(JP) Japan Electronics and Information Technology Industries Association (JEITA): FY12/13 PC shipments fell 1.1% y/y to 11.15M units - Nikkei News
(JP) Japan Industry Min Motegi: Japan's idled nuclear facilities might resume operations in autumn - Kyodo News
(JP) Japan House of Representatives (lower house) passes election reform bill - Nikkei News
(AU) Fixed income markets pricing in about a 48% chance of a May rate cut from the RBA following Q1 CPI data
(AU) Australia Treasurer Swan: High A$ is weighing on prices and having an impact on govt revenues - financial press
(AU) S&P analyst: Australia deficits will not pressure rating due to low public debt; reiterates stable AAA sovereign rating
(IN) India Fin Min Chidambaram: India's growth rate will be better than many peers; Indian 3rd stimulus package boosted inflation; FY13/14 fiscal deficit to be below 4.8%
Equities
AAPL: Reports Q2 $10.09 v $10.18e, R$43.6B v $44.3Be; Board approves $60B buyback (15% of market cap); increases dividend 15% to $3.05 from $2.65; -0.5% afterhours (after rising 5%)
T: Reports Q1 $0.67 v $0.64e, R$31.4B v $31.7Be; -1.5% afterhours
CREE: Reports Q3 $0.34 v $0.34e, R$349M v $343Me; -7.5% afterhours
VMW: Reports Q1 $0.74 v $0.70e, R$1.19B v $1.21Be; -6.0% afterhours
AMGN: Reports Q1 $1.96 v $1.80e, R$4.24B v $4.36Be; -6.2% afterhours
NSC: Reports Q1 $1.22 (ex prop sale) v $1.18e, R$2.74B v $2.78Be; -0.3% afterhours
BRCM: Reports Q1 $0.65 v $0.57e, R$2.01B v $1.95Be; +5.8% afterhours
YUM: Reports Q1 $0.71(adj) v $0.62e, R$2.54B v $2.65Be; +4.5% afterhours
IRBT: Reports Q1 $0.29 (incl benefit) v $0.17e, R$106.2M v $104Me; +16.8% afterhours
Hynix 000660.KR: Reports Q1 Net KRW178.7B v KRW320Be, Op profit KRW317.0B v KRW125Be, Rev KRW2.78T v KRW2.7Te
WPL.AU: Affirms FY12/13 production in 88-94MMBOE - AGM
VAH.AU: Singapore Air agreed to purchase additional 9.9% stake; total valued at A$122.6M
CWP.AU: Raises FY13 guidance for NPAT to A$36M (A$35M prior target) v A$34.23M y/y
Suzuki 7269.JP: Reports Mar Domestic production -10.2% y/y
Mitsubishi 7211.JP: Raises FY12/13 guidance to Net ¥38B from ¥13B prior target, Op profit ¥67.4B from ¥64B prior, Rev ¥1.82T from ¥1.81T prior
Fuji Heavy 7270.JP: Reports Mar China sales 4.0K; Exports to China 2.8K v 3.9K y/y
Hino 7205.JP: May report FY12/13 op profit just above ¥80B v ¥60B prior forecast - Nikkei News
Mitsui Osk 9104.JP: May report FY12/13 pretax profit around ¥50B v ¥28B prior forecast - Nikkei News
Mazda 7261.JP: Reports Mar Domestic production +19.6% y/y; may report FY12/13 op profit above ¥100B (highest since record set in FY07/08) v ¥45B prior forecast - Nikkei News
Yamato 9064.JP: May report FY13/14 op profit around ¥70B (highest in 8 years), +5% from latest FY12/13 forecast - Nikkei News
Hokkaido Electric 9509.JP: Reports FY12/13 Net loss ¥132.8B, Op loss ¥115.5B, Rev ¥583.0B; applies to increase rates from Sept
Economic Data
(NZ) RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND (RBNZ) LEAVES OFFICIAL CASH RATE UNCHANGED AT 2.50% (AS EXPECTED)
(AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 CONSUMER PRICES (CPI) Q/Q: 0.4% V 0.7%E; Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.8%E; CPI TRIMMED MEAN Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.5%E (lowest reading in nine quarters); Y/Y: 2.2% V 2.4%E
(AU) AUSTRALIA MAR DEWR INTERNET SKILLED VACANCIES M/M: +0.1% V -0.5% PRIOR (1st rise in 12 months)
(JP) JAPAN MAR CORP SERVICE PRICE INDEX Y/Y: -0.2% V -0.3%E
(VN) VIETNAM APR CPI Y/Y: 6.6% V 7.0%E
Markets Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)
Nikkei225 +1.3%
S&P/ASX +1.6%
Kospi +0.9%
Shanghai Composite +0.7%
Hang Seng +1.1%
Jun S&P500 +0.2% at 1,576
Jun gold +1.0% at $1,423/oz
Jun Crude Oil +0.4% at $89.49/brl
Observations/Insights
Asian bourses were in positive territory tracking strong gains in the US following a modest rebound in US new home sales and weak German PMIs that boosted expectations of an ECB easing. US markets also recovered quickly following an erroneous tweet from a hacked AP account claiming explosions had occurred at the White House. Nikkei225 opened sharply higher tracking weak Yan, advancing at one point to a new five-year high.
Australian Q1 CPI data advanced to 0.4%, much less than the 0.7% expected. The RBA's favored trimmed mean inflation eased to 0.3% against the 0.5% expected, the lowest reading in nine quarters. Fixed income markets are now pricing in a near split for an RBA cut against a hold at the upcoming May meeting. Treasurer Swan also later reiterated that the high AUD is weighing on prices and affecting government revenues, and that the government fiscal policy allows the RBA room to move over time.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced its decision to leave its cash rate (OCR) unchanged at a record low of 2.5%, remaining on hold since Mar 2011. RBNZ governor Wheeler's most pronounced statement shif pointed to New Zealand economy picking up - last time he said economy was still uneven. Wheeler did express some concerns that housing inflation is high in some regions, but also reiterated that he expects to keep OCR unchanged through 2013.
Currencies/Fixed Income/Commodities
GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall by 7.5 tons to 1,097.2 ton (lowest since 1,096.6 in Oct of 2009)
(US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES CRUDE: -845K (2nd consecutive draw) V +1ME; GASOLINE: -2.70M V -0.5ME; DISTILLATE: +0.67M V +0.5ME; UTILIZATION: 85.7% V 87.2% W/W
(CN) China Ministry of Finance (MOF) sells 10-yr bonds, avg yield 3.4207%
Much of the action in the currency markets centered around NZD and AUD pairs, the former rising and holding the gains after the RBNZ meeting and the latter selling on weak Australia CPI. NZD/USD traded up to $0.8445, AUD/USD fell about 40 pips around $1.0230, while the AUD/NZD cross saw a drop of about 70 pips, coming within 10 pips of multi-month lows around NZ$1.2140. Elsewhere, USD/JPY traded sideways in a 50pip range around ¥99.50, EUR/USD oscillated around $1.30, and Swiss franc remained offered across the board, with 3-week highs in USD/CHF at 0.9460 and 5-week highs in EUR/CHF near 1.26.
Speakers/Political/In the Papers
(CN) China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC): China 2012 banking industry bad loans CNY1.07T - Chinese press
(CN) Shanghai tightens policy on banks' investment products - US financial press
(CN) State Regulatory Commission director Jiang: calls on State owned Enterprises (SOEs) to post 10% profit growth and more than 8% value added performance in 2013 - Chinese press
(CN) China to conduct a bond probe to help ease LGFV (Local Government Financing Vehicle) debt risks - Chinese press
(CN) China Hangzhou City may implement a property tax trial - Chinese press
(CN) China's Shandong Province confirmed its first case of the H7N9 virus as bird flu spreads to a new area - Shanghai Daily
(CN) Overseas investors said to be increasingly using RQFII program in Hong Kong to short A-share ETFs - Chinese press
(JP) Japan Finance Minister Aso: BOJ easing isn't aimed at exchange rates
(JP) Japan Electronics and Information Technology Industries Association (JEITA): FY12/13 PC shipments fell 1.1% y/y to 11.15M units - Nikkei News
(JP) Japan Industry Min Motegi: Japan's idled nuclear facilities might resume operations in autumn - Kyodo News
(JP) Japan House of Representatives (lower house) passes election reform bill - Nikkei News
(AU) Fixed income markets pricing in about a 48% chance of a May rate cut from the RBA following Q1 CPI data
(AU) Australia Treasurer Swan: High A$ is weighing on prices and having an impact on govt revenues - financial press
(AU) S&P analyst: Australia deficits will not pressure rating due to low public debt; reiterates stable AAA sovereign rating
(IN) India Fin Min Chidambaram: India's growth rate will be better than many peers; Indian 3rd stimulus package boosted inflation; FY13/14 fiscal deficit to be below 4.8%
Equities
AAPL: Reports Q2 $10.09 v $10.18e, R$43.6B v $44.3Be; Board approves $60B buyback (15% of market cap); increases dividend 15% to $3.05 from $2.65; -0.5% afterhours (after rising 5%)
T: Reports Q1 $0.67 v $0.64e, R$31.4B v $31.7Be; -1.5% afterhours
CREE: Reports Q3 $0.34 v $0.34e, R$349M v $343Me; -7.5% afterhours
VMW: Reports Q1 $0.74 v $0.70e, R$1.19B v $1.21Be; -6.0% afterhours
AMGN: Reports Q1 $1.96 v $1.80e, R$4.24B v $4.36Be; -6.2% afterhours
NSC: Reports Q1 $1.22 (ex prop sale) v $1.18e, R$2.74B v $2.78Be; -0.3% afterhours
BRCM: Reports Q1 $0.65 v $0.57e, R$2.01B v $1.95Be; +5.8% afterhours
YUM: Reports Q1 $0.71(adj) v $0.62e, R$2.54B v $2.65Be; +4.5% afterhours
IRBT: Reports Q1 $0.29 (incl benefit) v $0.17e, R$106.2M v $104Me; +16.8% afterhours
Hynix 000660.KR: Reports Q1 Net KRW178.7B v KRW320Be, Op profit KRW317.0B v KRW125Be, Rev KRW2.78T v KRW2.7Te
WPL.AU: Affirms FY12/13 production in 88-94MMBOE - AGM
VAH.AU: Singapore Air agreed to purchase additional 9.9% stake; total valued at A$122.6M
CWP.AU: Raises FY13 guidance for NPAT to A$36M (A$35M prior target) v A$34.23M y/y
Suzuki 7269.JP: Reports Mar Domestic production -10.2% y/y
Mitsubishi 7211.JP: Raises FY12/13 guidance to Net ¥38B from ¥13B prior target, Op profit ¥67.4B from ¥64B prior, Rev ¥1.82T from ¥1.81T prior
Fuji Heavy 7270.JP: Reports Mar China sales 4.0K; Exports to China 2.8K v 3.9K y/y
Hino 7205.JP: May report FY12/13 op profit just above ¥80B v ¥60B prior forecast - Nikkei News
Mitsui Osk 9104.JP: May report FY12/13 pretax profit around ¥50B v ¥28B prior forecast - Nikkei News
Mazda 7261.JP: Reports Mar Domestic production +19.6% y/y; may report FY12/13 op profit above ¥100B (highest since record set in FY07/08) v ¥45B prior forecast - Nikkei News
Yamato 9064.JP: May report FY13/14 op profit around ¥70B (highest in 8 years), +5% from latest FY12/13 forecast - Nikkei News
Hokkaido Electric 9509.JP: Reports FY12/13 Net loss ¥132.8B, Op loss ¥115.5B, Rev ¥583.0B; applies to increase rates from Sept