Introduction
News from Argentina seemingly goes from bad to worse. But there is one piece of decidedly good news – Presidential elections in October, and President Kirchner is constitutionally ineligible to run for a third term. Once enormously popular her exit will be welcome by most Argentines. In what follows, I review the damage done by “The Lady” and suggest a plan of action for the next government.
The Kirchner Legacy
When I visited Argentina in 2008, I became something of a Kirchner apologist. The Lady had just taken over the nation’s pension funds and the Argentine economists I talked to said she would probably use the funds for her political campaigns. I disagreed saying the funds were not being well managed off-shore and the government would do a better job of they managed them directly. And then when she seized the Repsol (MADRID:REP) oil fields, I also supported her, arguing that Repsol was not developing them and Argentina needed the oil. And that argument had merit: Argentina’s petroleum imports are now ten times greater than they were in 2000 constituting 15% of total imports.
In retrospect, it is clear that I was far too supportive of the Lady and blind to other things going on. Over the last decade, her actions, including misuse of the pension funds and poor management of energy resources, have done great damage to the economy of Argentina and the country’s reputation worldwide. Her only “allies” at this point are the imploding Venezuela and China who lends her money secured by future agricultural and mineral exports to China.
Kirchner’s Destructive Acts
The following paragraphs provide details on some of CFK’s most destructive actions. The list is far from complete.
1. Intimidation
The mystery over the prosecutor’s death is only the latest and perhaps the most extreme form of government intimidation. It has become almost a knee-jerk reaction for Kirchner’s government to take action against anyone who criticizes government policy. And this intimidation policy has worked – academic and private Argentine economists have said very little about the Lady’s wayward policies. In fact, when I asked several Argentine economists to comment on this piece, they demurred, saying something about their future career.
However, her battles with the media have continued in public resulting in The Inter American Press Association (IAPA) condemning Kirchner’ chief of staff for tearing up pages of the newspaper Clarín during a public meeting. IAPA President Gustavo Mohme said he regretted that “the President Kirchner’s government involves the press in an alleged ‘political confrontation,’ discrediting the media as political opponents, instead of regarding them as an instrument watching over those in power as occurs in democratic societies.”
And this policy of harassing anyone who criticizes the government runs deep. Direct intervention by government political appointees is constant across the economy, even down to the level of individual firms. And Kirchner does not have to order harassment: government employees at all levels know what the Lady wants done.
2. Falsifying Government Data
It would be comic if not true: Argentina is the first country ever to be censured by the International Monetary Fund for “not providing accurate data on inflation and economic growth.” The Fund’s Executive Board has given Argentina to the end of February to “address the quality of the official data …for the Consumer Price Index and Gross Domestic Product (GDP).” In response, the Government has recently developed a new price index. Outside observers believe the new series still underestimates inflation by an appreciable amount. For example, FocusEconomics publishes inflation estimates from a number of international private banks and research entities. The government, using its new series, estimated 2014 inflation at 23.8%. The FocusEconomic’s Consensus was 26.3% with Oxford Economics estimating it at 36.8%. For 2015, the government is projecting a 14.5% inflation rate while the Consensus among 15 private entities is 23.0%. Needless to say, every Argentine knows prices for virtually everything they buy have been skyrocketing far beyond the bogus government claims. Outside the country considerable skepticism exits concerning any data collected by this government. If Argentina continues to falsify data, it could lose its IMF membership. That probably means little to the Lady. But it should.
3. Trade Barriers
The loss of confidence in Argentine governance has resulted in increasing capital outflows. And the country’s positive trade balance (US$7.4 bil.) no longer makes up the difference. The result: the current account, a measure that includes both the trade balance and capital flows has gone from a plus 2.8% of GDP in 2007 to -1.0% in 2014. Accordingly, FocusEconomics estimates the country’s international reserves have fallen from 12.4 months of exports in 2007 to a meager 4.2 months projected for 2015. As a result, the Kirchner regime has imposed numerous trade barriers. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has ruled they are illegal: a panel of three independent arbitrators found that Argentina’s licensing rules violated WTO agreements, and urged the government to bring them in line with accepted international trade practices.
The real problem with such trade barriers is that they create lucrative opportunities for illegal black market activities. And these opportunities are pursued aggressively by Argentines in the fields of imports and exports, including many working in the Administration.
The “Lady” appears to have no understanding of basic economic supply/demand forces and how trying to interfere with them creates incentives for citizens to become criminals. A far preferable approach would be to get rid of the propped up artificial exchange rate for the peso. That artificial rate allows people (who are lucky enough to get import approvals) to purchase imports at prices way below supply-demand equilibrium prices.
What explains Kirchner’s proclivity to insist on non-market prices and artificial restrictions? The Lady thinks like military leaders: they like to issue commands to get things done. On my first trip to Ghana for the IMF, the military had just ousted Nkrumah and was running the country. The military had no understanding of economics and markets. They were used to commanding things to happen and seeing their commands followed. So if the exchange rate was not to their liking, they would tell the banks and the money traders what the exchange rate should be. If the military did not like the exchange rates being offered by the money changers, they would put a few of them in jail and disperse the others. It never worked. After a few weeks the money changers would return…. I observed the same behavior on the part of Myanmar’s military leaders a couple of decades later. Today, it is alive and well in the streets of Buenos Aires.
4. Rampant Corruption
As suggested above, the Lady’s “command and control” regime offers numerous opportunities for corruption. And apparently, government officials and others have taken full advantage of them. Some observers somewhat cynically argue that policy-makers, rather than being ignorant of the distorting effects of incentives they create intentionally design them, so they can get in on the action.
A recent report, issued by a lobbying group of the Argentine debt holders who have refused to settle identifies 14 high-level Kirchner government executives whose personal wealth has increased dramatically during their years in service. For example Guillermo Moreno, the former commerce secretary, saw his wealth increase 27-fold during his public service. It is clear that “government service” under the Kirchners pays well.
Transparency International provides an aggregate corruption ranking corruption for 174 countries. No country with a per capital income as high as or higher than Argentina has as much corruption by the Transparency International measure.
5. Efforts to Set Peso Values
Ever since I started traveling to Argentina, there has been an “official” and “black market” rate for dollar to peso conversions. Madame Kirchner somehow thinks she can influence exchange rates by fiat. A couple of years back, she got a law passed that required all Argentine real estate transactions to be done in pesos. Of course, this is all complete nonsense and a nuisance for anyone hoping to visit or do business in Argentina. Since 2008, the official exchange rate has gone from just under 4 pesos per dollar to about 8.7 pesos/$ today. The black market rate is a little over 13 pesos/$. And yes, as happens in military dictatorships, the money traders’ offices are regularly raided.
The above gives only a partial picture of the economic malaise in Argentina today caused by the Kirchner regime. I turn now to what the future should/could hold as the Kirchner era ends.
The Future
a. Good News: The Economic Fundamentals of Argentina are Strong
In 2009, I completed a series of articles on the resiliency of Latin American countries following the US banks collapse and resulting global depression. The series was co-authored with a professional colleague and my students at the University of Palermo in Buenos Aires. I quote from our conclusions in the Argentine paper:
“With all that has been reported above, keep in mind that Argentina, like Russia, is a natural resource rich country…. “The size and role of government will probably continue to grow (it has grown from 20% of GDP in 2002 to more than 30% now). And political power grabs will probably continue. But at least the first quarter of the 21st Century will be good to natural resource rich countries. And it is hard to imagine things will be bad in Argentina in the long run. Its exports will rebound.”
According to Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics, Argentine exports have grown at a healthy 8.4% compounded annual growth rate since 2000. That compares with an Argentine overall GDP growth rate of only 3.6%, the slower rate undoubtedly slowed in part by the Lady’s disastrous policy meddling.
But there are further reasons to be optimistic. Despite growing energy imports, the country runs a healthy trade balance. And because of the “loose ends/untidiness” of its 2002 debt default, international lending windows have been largely closed to the country since then. Exactly how much debt the country owes to Venezuela and more recently to China is not clear. However, FocusEconomics estimates its external debt (% GDP) at a low 26.6%.
b. What Should Be Done To Turn Things Around?
We start with the fact that Argentina has a solid base for growth. But to get back on track, Argentina needs a leader who offers a platform that the citizens and international community can believe in. And given what has happened since 2003 when the Kirchners came to power, that will be a tall order. Most Argentine citizens have lost any hope they can influence outcomes at the polls. And with the harassment resulting from criticism of the government, most citizens say nothing.
The political platform of the next President should emphasize legitimacy and transparency. S/he should tell the people what you will do and report back honestly on successes and failures. The President should start by:
- getting rid of all the nonsense policies in violation of international law;
- stop intimidation;
- stop falsifying economic data;
- drop the tariffs that violate WTO mandates;
- abolish “official” peso values, and
- reduce corruption.
How might all of this be accomplished? In the economic arena, the new President should start by creating a council of economic advisors (CEA) drawn from the excellent “stock” of Argentine economists working in government, academia, and the private sector. Their mandate would be to examine every major sector and identify all inappropriate and unnecessary restrictions on commerce, both domestic and international. The findings should be summarized in a published report for the President. The President should respond publicly and say what he will try do.
To provide more legitimacy and transparency, the CEA should appoint an advisory group of 5 – 8 international economists who review its work and offer suggestions and criticisms made available to the public.
In addition, an anti-corruption panel should be launched to investigate the alleged corruption and intimidation that took place during the Kirchner regime. Their findings should serve as the basis for legal actions against individuals and companies for corruption and financial damage resulting from intimidation.
But even if all this happens, it will several years for consumers and investors, both local and international, to feel confident about the Argentine economy and governance. And the next couple of years will be tough with most outsiders predicting GDP to turn down in 2015.
Investment Implications
With all that is wrong in Argentina, the stock market (Merval ) and the (Global X FTSE Argentina 20 (NYSE:ARGT) ) are up over the last 12 months. I don’t get it. And with the uncertainty about the immediate future, investments in Argentina should be left to informed (and wealthy) risk takers.
Editor’s Note: I want to acknowledge the assistance provided by Richard Rust, an American residing in Buenos Aires, with information for this article.