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Is The Market Repeating What Happened In May 2015?

Published 08/21/2016, 09:45 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Many technical warnings, divergences, and indicators are sounding alarms everywhere. The biggest problem is complacency! There is "no fear" in the stock market, and old timers will tell you that is when you need to worry.

The VIX indicator is at a low point that reminds us of May 2015, when we were in a similar position. Put and call ratios are showing that almost everyone is wildly bullish.

Even though the Dow and S&P 500 have hit new all-time highs, the charts you want to pay attention to are the weekly NYSE Composite and the weekly Russell 2000. They have not broken their old highs and they are both very close to a "Death Cross". That's when the 50 dma crosses over the 200 dma and starts heading down. It's a "very bearish sign" of a major trend change to the downside.

In May of 2015 we hit a high on the S&P 500 of 2134, and now we have passed that high and recently hit a new high of 2193.81. From May 2015 to August 2015 the stock market went down and ended with the biggest one-day drop in history. That's when the Dow dropped over 1,000 points on a Friday morning.

My charts are saying that 2193.81 (2194) is our new top for a big Elliott Wave-4 and that we have already started a big Elliott Wave-5 down.

Support levels that you want to watch are 2168, 2159, and 2147. I believe that once we break those 3 support levels on the S&P 500, the bear market will be "confirming" its next big move down.

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