Market movers today
Focus continues to be on the developments in Ukraine after authorities in Kiev announced the start of an 'anti-terrorist operation' against pro-Russian separatists.
In Europe the main releases are final CPI for the euro area and unemployment in the UK. We expect the final reading on inflation to remain unchanged at 0.5% y/y, although a downward revision cannot be completely ruled out. UK unemployment is set to decline and consensus expectations suggest a 7.1% reading.
In the data calendar the main focus in the US will be the release of housing starts, building permits and industrial production for March. We expect to see a weather-related rebound in housing starts, albeit the weak NAHB house market index suggests that recent soft data for the housing market are not just due to bad weather.
Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen will speak in the Economic Club of New York followed by a Q&A session. The main topic is expected to be monetary policy unlike the brief speech yesterday that mainly covered regulatory issues. We expect Yellen to be dovish and not least attempt to decouple Fed's tapering and interest rate decision. Fed is also scheduled to release the regional Beige Book survey of the US economy this evening.
Q1 earning reports will continue to be in focus with among others Credit Suisse, Bank of America, American Express, Google and IBM reporting today.
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