The betting and events markets have shifted more decisively than the polls in favor of the UK to remain in the EU. Sterling extended its rally from $1.4010 last Thursday to nearly $1.4785 today, as the market participants adjust positions.
What is particularly striking is the asymmetrical perceptions of the personal impact of a vote to leave the EU. The Great Graphic here was posted on Business Insider, which took it from Kantar, a research firm.
A little more than 70% of the 18-24 yr. old cohort indicated they will vote to remain in the EU. Only 38% of those in the 65+ cohort favor remaining. The graphic shows that a many young people think they would be financially harmed by a Brexit vote.
Many political observers have noted that the demographic groups supporting Trump in the US are similar to those favoring Brexit. Clinton leads Trump among the 18-29 year-olds according to the latest NBC/WSJ poll by 55% to 32%. In a face-to-face contest, Sanders leads Trump 69% to 26% percent in that age group. Obama beat Romney for this cohort by 23 percentage points. This gap can play an important role in some swing states that have important college towns, like Virginia, Wisconsin and Ohio.