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Nightmarish June For The Indian Rupee

Published 07/02/2013, 02:30 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:32 AM









USDINR Weekly Movement







INDIAN STOCK MARKET


RUPEE AND BOND YIELDS



Bond Yield Spread







MACRO ECONOMIC INDICATORS
  • For the March quarter, CAD narrowed to $18.1 billion, or 3.6 per cent of GDP, from an all-time high of $32.6 billion, or 6.7 per cent of GDP, the previous quarter. During 2012-13, CAD stood at $87.8 billion (4.8 per cent of GDP), against $78.2 billion (4.2 per cent of GDP) during the previous financial year. A burgeoning trade deficit, along with a significant decline in invisible earnings, caused widening of CAD during the year. For the financial year ended March, the country had a balance of payments surplus of $3.83 billion, compared with a deficit of $12.8 billion a year earlier.
  • India's foreign exchange reserves fell to $287.846 billion as on June 21 from $290.658 billion in the previous week.
  • India’s external debt, as at end-March 2013, rose to $ 390.0 billion showing an increase of $ 44.6 billion or 12.9 per cent over the level at end-March 2012. The increase in total external debt during financial year 2012-13 was primarily on account of rise in short-term trade credit. There has been sizeable rise in external commercial borrowings (ECBs) and rupee denominated Non-resident Indian deposits as well.
OUTLOOK

Fundamental






USD/INR

Technical
USD/INR


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Month’s Trend: Mild near term bullishness in USD/INR but undertone remains bearish. ZigZag movement expected. Expected Range: 57.70 - 60.35

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