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A New Stock Market Downtrend Has Begun

ByRobert H Anderson
Published 03/02/2015, 04:51 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

My charts and technical analysis are telling me that a new downtrend started after we hit 2119 on the S&P 500.

Since the old high of 2093 the S&P 500 went down in a classic Elliott Wave pattern of 5 waves down & 21 sub waves. The 5 waves down completed near the beginning of February. Then again, in another classic Elliott Wave pattern, it went up 3 waves and 13 sub waves to hit the recent high of 2119.

The major indexes like the Dow, S&P500, NASDAQ, and the Russell 2000 are also showing bearish rising wedge patterns on their daily charts. Recently they fell out of the apexes of those rising wedges and are now heading down. At the same time the VIX had a bullish falling wedge pattern and on Friday it rose up and out of its apex. The VIX goes up when the stock market goes down.

Also the full stochastic indicator on the hourly charts are crossing over and their MACD indicators with Pring parameters that are crossing over on the hourly charts.

So far since the 2119 S&P 500 top we have completed 2 sub waves and today (Monday) we should continue processing sub wave-3 down. At last Friday's close we started sub wave-3 down and the Dow went down -81 points. Today (03/02) could be another strong down day.

It all spells a new downtrend has started and I will be looking for another Elliott Wave pattern of 5 waves down. Does this mean we are starting a "new" bear market? If a new bear market has started, many will be surprised and others will be ready and waiting.

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