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A Bit Like A Greek Tragedy

ByIan Copsey
Published 06/30/2015, 11:52 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Man 1: I’m gonna shoot you
Man 2: You aren’t going to shoot me
Man 1: I am. I’m gonna shoot you.
Man 2: Ok, then shoot me.
Man 1: I ain’t gonna shoot you.
Man 2: OK.
Man 1: But I might…

This is a transcript from the Greek debt discussions. “Nowhere” is a great destination for where things are going, and that’s just where the markets are heading too. It has made the charts look like a 2-year old kid would scribble and has made life difficult once again. It seems to me as if we’re stuck mid-way between one outcome and another, rather like a drunk trying to walk on the central line in a road.

My underlying view, as I have described, remains firm, but there's a need for a near-term resolution before the underlying expectation can develop. From what I can see from the structure, there are some suggestions the dollar can extend its weakness – but the balance across the currency pairs is a bit rough and ready.

Having said that, I would not fight any strength in the dollar – particularly against the Europeans and Aussie dollar. USD/JPY appears to be a different kettle of fish. I am expecting it to rally, but I’m not convinced that it’ll be direct. Such is the mess that the 2-year olds’ scribbles have made.

Needless to say, now is not the time to try and pick the home run. There are enough signs of indecision that it just doesn’t make any sense to go out on a limb…

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