Stocks saw a very choppy week last week, as we enter the seasonally 6 to 8 week, challenging stretch of the year. I’m expecting lots of chop with a few trades here and I’ll also be looking for dip buys when they come, but we may not see a nice trend higher until November or so.
We’ve had a great summer trading and we should have another nice run into year's end. The metals are showing weakness but shouldn’t fall too far.
The odd time I show long-term charts to give us all the long view so that’s what I’ll do this weekend.
Let’s kick it off with the 20 year monthly gold chart.
The 20 year monthly chart of gold clearly shows this new bull market/ uptrend has begun. After the large triangle broke at $1,600 back in 2012 we’ve been in a weak market. I sold most of my gold at the $1,680 area at the time but I should have done much better.
The $1,180 pivot area has now drawn gold back above it and we’re slowly heading higher and higher for at least the next 3 years in my view. The day to day gyrations can be fun to play, but the dominant trend is up.
This is really quite a pretty chart for what looks like will end up being a near 20 year secular bull market with a nice 4 or so years rest and correction. Saturday, 17 September, 2016!
Now we’re setting up the right side of this pattern and that can take a couple years before we see the major breakout into new highs. Patience and buy the dips with the longview in mind is what this chart is telling me to do. I don’t really care about GATA, manipulation claims, or any other type of news. I care about the chart and it tells me we’ve got lots more upside.
Years ago, I’d spend hours a day reading news and theories about gold and companies and it just clouded my view. Now, I have lots of time to peruse charts, find leading stocks and sectors, live life and spend more time away from the computer.
Being able to interpret charts is the best way I’ve found to find to make hay in the markets.
Silver is also turning up off major support at the $15 area and now setting up to break $20 and make the slow move up to $27.50 where major resistance sits. This chart pattern is going to be one for the record books when it’s setup to break into new highs above $50. This is a long view trade as well.
There will always be times to trade around core holdings in the metals but the trend is up and should be for years to come.
The long-term platinum chart doesn’t scream major trend change to up yet but it always follows gold and silver so it should be fine. I’d have to see it get back above the major downtrend line and 50 month moving average at $1,275 and we should see that relatively early in 2017.
Notice the very bearish twin peaks pattern after a major high area.
You don’t see those too often and this may be the first time I’ve noticed that in this chart but I’ve always got an eye out for it, as well as many other patterns, day counts, Fibonacci retracement sometimes as well, moving averages and a few other things.
Palladium held the $500 area well and has turned up and formed a nice U pattern here which should be good for a move to $850 where we will need rest.
Once we setup and break above $850 we should really begin to see this metal accelerate higher.