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'Bull Trap' Confirmed In Semiconductor Index

Published 09/23/2014, 12:17 AM

The failed breakout in the Semiconductor Index expanded with another loss above 1%.  Monday's loss took it below the 20-day MA, kept the MACD 'sell' trigger in play and generated a CCI 'sell' trigger.

Semiconductor Index Daily Chart

Other indices similarly pulled away from Friday's sell off, but not enough to break support. The S&P 500 remained above 1,987 and will see a test tomorrow.  Technicals are mixed: the Directional Movement System is bullish, but the MACD has been bearish for most of September.

S&P 500 Large Cap Index Daily Chart

The NASDAQ didn't 'bull trap', but it's heading to a combined test of 4,485 trading range and the 20-day MA.

Nasdaq Composite Index Daily Chart

Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 broke below channel support in an acceleration of the losses from August's highs.  A move to the May 1,090 swing low is the next key target.  The July swing low may/may not play a role in the move down.
Russell 2000 Small Cap Index Daily Chart

Tomorrow may see support tests and offer rebound opportunities. Best of these plays could be the Nasdaq given the convergence of the 50-day MA and 4,485 key support. If bears take control of morning action, then a Semiconductor push to its 50-day MA is a better option as a short/long switch.

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