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Fed Rate Monitor Tool
Fed Interest Rate Decision May 01, 2024 02:00PM ET
1
Weeks
5
Days
8
Hours
56
Minutes
Our Fed rate monitor calculator is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which tend to signal the markets’ expectations regarding the possibility of changes to US interest rates based on Fed monetary policy. The tool allows users to calculate the likelihood of an upcoming Fed rate hike or cut.
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
May 01, 2024 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
94.680
5.00 - 5.25
4.4%
5.25 - 5.50
95.6%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 4.4% | — | 7.0% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 95.6% | 99.6% | 93.0% |
| 5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.4% | — |
Updated: Apr 19, 2024 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jun 12, 2024 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
94.705
4.75 - 5.00
0.6%
5.00 - 5.25
16.8%
5.25 - 5.50
82.6%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 0.6% | — | 1.3% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 16.8% | 24.3% | 23.3% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 82.6% | 75.4% | 75.4% |
| 5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.3% | — |
Updated: Apr 19, 2024 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jul 31, 2024 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
94.720
4.50 - 4.75
0.2%
4.75 - 5.00
5.6%
5.00 - 5.25
37.2%
5.25 - 5.50
57.0%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 0.2% | — | 0.4% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 5.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 37.2% | 41.2% | 40.5% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 57.0% | 50.6% | 50.5% |
| 5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.2% | — |
Updated: Apr 19, 2024 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Sep 18, 2024 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
94.840
4.50 - 4.75
2.5%
4.75 - 5.00
18.9%
5.00 - 5.25
45.5%
5.25 - 5.50
33.1%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.1% | — | 0.2% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 18.9% | 22.6% | 22.6% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 45.5% | 45.3% | 44.9% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 33.1% | 28.4% | 28.3% |
| 5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.1% | — |
Updated: Apr 19, 2024 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Nov 07, 2024 01:00PM ET
Future Price:
94.950
4.25 - 4.50
0.6%
4.50 - 4.75
6.0%
4.75 - 5.00
24.5%
5.00 - 5.25
42.9%
5.25 - 5.50
26.0%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 0.0% | — | 0.0% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 6.0% | 8.7% | 8.8% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 24.5% | 28.8% | 28.4% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 42.9% | 40.7% | 40.6% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 26.0% | 20.7% | 21.0% |
| 5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.1% | — |
Updated: Apr 19, 2024 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Dec 18, 2024 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.010
4.00 - 4.25
0.3%
4.25 - 4.50
3.1%
4.50 - 4.75
14.5%
4.75 - 5.00
33.0%
5.00 - 5.25
35.1%
5.25 - 5.50
14.1%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 0.0% | — | 0.0% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 14.5% | 17.1% | 18.4% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 33.0% | 33.7% | 34.4% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 35.1% | 32.4% | 30.9% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 14.1% | 12.1% | 10.6% |
| 5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.1% | — |
Updated: Apr 19, 2024 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jan 29, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.080
4.00 - 4.25
1.1%
4.25 - 4.50
6.3%
4.50 - 4.75
19.8%
4.75 - 5.00
33.6%
5.00 - 5.25
29.1%
5.25 - 5.50
10.0%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 0.0% | — | 0.0% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 6.3% | 8.5% | 9.1% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 19.8% | 22.6% | 23.4% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 33.6% | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 29.1% | 25.7% | 24.7% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 10.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% |
| 5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.0% | — |
Updated: Apr 19, 2024 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Mar 12, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.190
3.75 - 4.00
0.4%
4.00 - 4.25
2.8%
4.25 - 4.50
10.6%
4.50 - 4.75
24.2%
4.75 - 5.00
32.1%
5.00 - 5.25
23.0%
5.25 - 5.50
6.8%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 0.0% | — | 0.0% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 10.6% | 13.8% | 15.0% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 24.2% | 26.7% | 27.5% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 32.1% | 30.4% | 29.8% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 23.0% | 19.0% | 17.6% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% |
| 5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.0% | — |
Updated: Apr 19, 2024 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Apr 23, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.245
3.50 - 3.75
0.2%
3.75 - 4.00
1.3%
4.00 - 4.25
5.8%
4.25 - 4.50
15.8%
4.50 - 4.75
27.2%
4.75 - 5.00
28.7%
5.00 - 5.25
16.8%
5.25 - 5.50
4.2%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 0.0% | — | 0.0% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.8% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 15.8% | 18.7% | 17.3% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 27.2% | 28.1% | 27.9% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 28.7% | 26.1% | 27.4% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 16.8% | 13.7% | 15.0% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% |
| 5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.0% | — |
Updated: Apr 19, 2024 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jun 04, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.455
3.50 - 3.75
0.4%
3.75 - 4.00
2.1%
4.00 - 4.25
7.6%
4.25 - 4.50
17.9%
4.50 - 4.75
27.5%
4.75 - 5.00
26.5%
5.00 - 5.25
14.5%
5.25 - 5.50
3.4%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.75 - 3.00 | — | — | 0.0% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 2.1% | 5.5% | 2.9% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 7.6% | 14.2% | 9.4% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 17.9% | 24.2% | 19.9% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 27.5% | 26.9% | 27.8% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 26.5% | 18.8% | 24.4% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 14.5% | 7.5% | 12.2% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 3.4% | 1.3% | 2.7% |
| 5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.0% | — |
Updated: Apr 19, 2024 04:45AM EDT
Add to Calendar
Meeting Time:
Jul 16, 2025 02:00PM ET
Future Price:
95.420
3.25 - 3.50
0.2%
3.50 - 3.75
1.2%
3.75 - 4.00
4.6%
4.00 - 4.25
12.3%
4.25 - 4.50
22.3%
4.50 - 4.75
27.0%
4.75 - 5.00
21.0%
5.00 - 5.25
9.5%
5.25 - 5.50
1.9%
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.50 - 2.75 | — | — | — |
| 2.75 - 3.00 | 0.0% | — | 0.0% |
| 3.00 - 3.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3.25 - 3.50 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 3.50 - 3.75 | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% |
| 3.75 - 4.00 | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% |
| 4.00 - 4.25 | 12.3% | 12.8% | 14.6% |
| 4.25 - 4.50 | 22.3% | 22.6% | 23.8% |
| 4.50 - 4.75 | 27.0% | 26.5% | 26.1% |
| 4.75 - 5.00 | 21.0% | 20.2% | 18.4% |
| 5.00 - 5.25 | 9.5% | 9.4% | 7.5% |
| 5.25 - 5.50 | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| 5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.2% | — |
| 5.75 - 6.00 | — | 0.0% | — |
Updated: Apr 19, 2024 04:45AM EDT
Fed Fund Rates
News
Powell speech, ASML earnings, UK inflation - what's moving markets
By Investing.com - Apr 17, 2024
3
Investing.com -- Fed chief Jerome Powell suggested that interest rates may need to stay higher for longer, but stock futures indicate a positive open on Wall Street. U.K. inflation falls again, while...
Dollar nears five-month high; sterling slips after wage data
By Investing.com - Apr 16, 2024
Investing.com - The U.S. dollar remained in demand in early European trade Tuesday, climbing to a five-month high, while sterling retreated after relatively benign wage data. At 04:00 ET (09:00 GMT),...
Quarterly corporate earnings, Chinese growth, UK wages - what's moving markets
By Investing.com - Apr 16, 2024
1
Investing.com -- The quarterly corporate earnings season continues Tuesday, with Bank of America and Morgan Stanley the latest of the country's major banks to report. Elsewhere, China's growth...
Analysis
Gold’s Long-Term Bullish Trend Still Intact Despite Recent Pullback
By Fawad Razaqzada - Mar 25, 2024
4
Gold's strong trend weakened due to a strong US dollar, causing mild bearish price action. Dollar's strength, driven by external factors and positive US economic indicators, weighed on gold. Despite...
EUR/USD Swings Wildly Post Key Central Bank Decisions: Downside Bias Taking Hold
By Damian Nowiszewski - Mar 22, 2024
Fed remains on course for 3 interest rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, SNB has surprised the market with an interest rate cut. And, the Bank of England won't rush a pivot. In 2024, invest like the big...
Nvidia Breakout to Fuel Nasdaq Rally Toward New Highs Today: Key Levels to Watch
By Fawad Razaqzada - Mar 21, 2024
6
Post the Fed's dovish-leaning meeting, stocks, gold, and bonds surged, with yields dipping, prompting speculation about whether the post-Fed rally will last. For the QQQ, attention is on critical...